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    Polling Tag

    Rasmussen released a poll this week revealing that only 25% of likely voters believe that America is heading in the right direction. Just one year ago, this viewpoint was expressed by 30% of likely voters. Via Rasmussen:
    This is up two points from the week before which tied the lowest level of confidence since last October during the temporary government shutdown. The number who say the country is heading in the right direction has been below 30% for most of this year. Early last October during the shutdown, confidence in the country’s course fell to 13%, the lowest finding in five years. Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters now think the country is headed down the wrong track. This finding is down three points from 69% a week ago, the highest negative finding since last November. Eighty percent (80%) felt the country was on the wrong track in early October 2013.
    Notably, 70% of likely voters not affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic Party believe that the country is on the wrong track---which exceeds the average by 4 points. This latest poll comes at a time when President Obama's approval rating is hovering above his all-time low of 38%. With just 41% of Americans willing to admit they approve of the way the President is doing his job (down 2 points since August 24,) Republicans are finding themselves with a key strategic advantage as we move into the last 60 days before the November elections. gallup approval sept 3

    A Quinnipiac University National Poll released today confirms what conservatives across the country have known since 2008: that Barack Obama is a dreadful president. Via Quinnipiac University:
    President Barack Obama is the worst president since World War II, 33 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Another 28 percent pick President George W. Bush. Ronald Reagan is the best president since WWII, 35 percent of voters say, with 18 percent for Bill Clinton, 15 percent for John F. Kennedy and 8 percent for Obama, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Among Democrats, 34 percent say Clinton is the best president, with 18 percent each for Obama and Kennedy.
    Meanwhile, just under half of voters polled believe that America would be better off with Mitt Romney at the helm:
    America would be better off if Republican Mitt Romney had won the 2012 presidential election, 45 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say the country would be worse off.
    There are two takeaways from this poll, and only one of them has to do with the fact that the majority of Americans are experiencing some serious buyer's remorse over all the "hope and change" happening down on the border/in Benghazi/at our VA hospitals.

    A poll released this week suggests that a majority of Cuban-Americans living in Miami favor ending the Cuban trade embargo. A finer reading calls those results into question. The poll, conducted by Florida International University (FIU) professors Guillermo J. Grenier and Hugh Gladwin for the Cuban Research Initiative, finds that 52% of all Cuban-Americans and 51% of Cuban-Americans registered to vote favor ending the 54-year long embargo that restricts all imports of Cuban goods and most exports to the communist island. 2014 FIU Cuba Polll Favor Embargo section Though, since the study has a margin of error of 3.12 points, a 52-to-48 spread is a virtual tie. Professors Grenier and Gladwin have conducted the FIU Cuba Poll every year since 1991. Its respondents are 1,000 randomly selected Cuban-Americans above age 18 living throughout Miami-Dade County.

    At this point, I'm used to support for the Tea Party being mischaracterized in news coverage of polling.  The negative always is the focus, and actual analysis of the persistency of support hovering between 1-in-4 and 1-in-5 Americans is ignored: With the release of the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, the strength of the Tea Party has been ignored in favor of focus on rifts in the Republican Party and the generic congressional ballot looking better for Republicans.  Those other topics are important and worthy of coverage, but why isn't the surge in Tea Party favorability since the partial government "shutdown" getting coverage? Wait, what?!  Favorability of the Tea Party has surged since the partial shut down of some of the government?  Isn't the narrative supposed to be that the Tea Party is toast? Here are the internals for the NYT/CBS poll.  Favorability has risen from 14% in late October to 21% currently! Surge! Unfavorability has dropped by 5% too. Overall favorability actually has returned to its historical norm, but that in itself is a story. An overwhelming majority do not have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, with almost half undecided or not having heard enough.  Most of the unfavorability comes from Democrats: CBS-NYT Poll February 2014 Q 70 Tea Party Favorability You could slice and dice this into great headlines reflecting well on the Tea Party in America.  But you won't see those headlines. Why the surge in favorablity and decline in unfavorability? Perhaps it's because the massive media attack on the Tea Party after the "shutdown" was overblown, and the Tea Party was proven correct on so many things, particularly Obamacare. As to whether the Tea Party has too much influence, the numbers also are postive although not dramatic:

    At which Democrats should start freaking out. The polling just keeps getting worse and worse.  A couple of months ago the generic congressional election polling was having Democrats and Establishment Republicans (yes, there is such a thing) ready to wrap the death of the Republican Party around the necks of Ted Cruz and Mike Lee. Good times, good times, for Democrats. It was a false prognosis, because Cruz and Lee were trying to stop the disaster known as Obamacare. The legacy will be Democrats going to the mat to protect and preserve Obamacare. If Democrats owned Obamacare before, as a result of the efforts of Cruz, Lee and others, Democrats swallowed Obamacare whole in September. Now everything has changed because Obamacare and Democrats are one and the same. Via Hot Air, this chart which caused Charlie Cook to declare Holy Sh-t! (my paraphrase), should make Democrats want to regurgitate their Obamacare feast:
    The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.
    Congressional Generic Polling Data Chart 12-6-2013 While many Democrats are desperate for relief from Obamacare, those who are to tied to the law's passage, like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana Purchase fame, are choosing to double down:

    Havard's Institute of Politics just released a devastating study showing a massive drop in support among Millennials for Obama and Obamacare. Bottom line is that Millennials don't like Republicans, but for the first time they don't like Obama and Democrats almost as much. Here is the key finding in the Executive Summary (at pp. 5-6):
    Additionally, we found that a majority (52%) of 18- to 29- year olds would choose to recall all members of Congress if it were possible, 45 percent would recall their member of Congress (45% would not) and approximately the same number indicate that they would recall President Obama (47% recall, 46% not recall).

    Harvard Survey Fall 2013 Millenial Support Recalls

    The trends lines are horrible for Democrats particularly among college age students, where the gap between Republicans and Democrats has narrowed significantly:

    We have addressed many times recently the misleading claim that support for the Tea Party Movement was at historic lows or reflected the near-end of the movement: The ABC News - Washington Post poll released just after midnight has generated headlines for the sharp decline in Obama's favorability ratings by just about every measure, and the growing unpopularity of Obamacare. But there is a hidden gem in the poll that is not receiving much attention.  Support for the Tea Party movement is at 38% for all registered voters, not far below the 41% approval rating and 46% favorability rating for Obama.  Moreover, 46% think the Tea Party has too little/just about right influence versus 43% who think it has too much influence.  49% think the Tea Party political views are about right or too liberal, versus only 40% who think too conservative. It's clear that support for Tea Party political views exceeds support for the movement, likely the result of years of demonization, culiminating in the recent Democratic Party eliminationist rhetoric directed at the Tea Party. In the serious of screen shots below, you can see some interesting details, including that Tea Party support comes from the more educated, and even has substantial support among non-whites, although lower than among whites.

    Another conversation I had with myself on Twitter. Last time it was about The Republican Brand.  This time it's about the lunacy of Republicans -- stoked by the media -- panicking over polling last week showing Republicans dropping like a stone into a mountain crevice. Today Pew released its polling, and it found essentially no change in Republican favorability over the past year. Democrats poll better in terms of favorability, but that's been the case for a long time. Republicans actually are in a slightly better position today than a year out from the 2010 Republican landslide, and are rated better in terms of handling the economy and running government. I don't say Pew knows any better than the other pollsters, or vice versa, but that's the point.  Do what's right, and worry about the 2014 polls closer to November 2014.  For God's sake, Republicans, stop acting like bouncing Super Balls based on the latest polling. First some Pew charts:

    Pew Party Favorability 10-15-2013 full

    Pew Mid Term Advantage 10-15-2013

    Pew More Extreme 10-15-2013

    Now my conversation with myself on Twitter: https://twitter.com/LegInsurrection/status/390187871061016576 https://twitter.com/LegInsurrection/status/390188126896807937

    I told you just a couple of days ago that the Gallup headline of a decline in Tea Party popularity was misleading. The misleading headline, ignoring the details of the poll, was picked up far and wide, Congrats @Gallup for inspiring these 5 misleading anti-Tea Party headlines. The Washington Post yesterday, however, revealed that the Tea Party popularity was rising, Obamacare fight reenergizes tea party movement (emphasis added):

    WaPo Tea Party Support Rising

    The tea party movement rose to prominence in the early years of Obama’s presidency, helping drive a surge of conservative activism that helped flip control of the House to Republicans in 2010. At the time, according to CBS-New York Times polling, nearly a third of Americans considered themselves tea party supporters. The movement’s popularity, though faded, shows signs of growing again: A quarter of Americans in a new CBS-New York Times survey between Sept. 19 and 23 said they support the tea party, up four points from two weeks earlier.
    "Oddly" enough, it was really hard to find the poll to which WaPo was referring. The rise in Tea Party popularity in the CBS-New York Times survey didn't get the attention of the misleading Gallup headline.  I could not find any stories about that finding prior to the WaPo article. The rise in Tea Party support didn't get headlines at The Times, or at CBS News which ran this misleading headline about the Gallup poll instead, but nowhere in the article mentioned its own contrary findings:

    CBS News Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

    Eventually I found the poll, here it is. CBS-NYT poll cover The question about Tea Party support shows that Tea Party support rose rapidly this month, is higher than it has been for over a year, and is in the same range it has been in since early 2010, with the exception of the surge in support around the 2010 election:

    I covered earlier the negative spin Gallup put on its recent Tea Party polling.  What showed a stable support/opposition over the last two years -- including a drop in opposition -- was spun as a negative only by comparison to three years ago. Gallup could have titled its report "No real change in Tea Party Support" or "Tea Party Support/Opposition Stable." Instead, Gallup put this spin on it:

    Gallup Tea Party Support 9-26-2013

    That misleading spin has been picked up and run with across the media, which is trying to tie the supposed decline to Ted Cruz's rise since 2012. But there was no meaningful decline since 2012 -- just 2% within the poll's 3% margin of error.  Support is actually 1% higher than in 2011.  You have to go back three years to the 2010 mid-term pro-Republican wave election, when Tea Party support peaked briefly, to see a substantial decline.  But that substantial decline took place prior to the 2012 election, long before Cruz was in the Senate.

    Gallup Tea Party Support Chart 9-26-2013

    Even with that, over 1 in 5 Americans still support the Tea Party and half of Americans are neutral.  Considering the demonization of the Tea Party in the media and Washington, D.C., a stable support/opposition is pretty amazing. No one is interested in the details, it's just political gamesmanship. Here are 5 profoundly misleading headlines inspired by Gallup:

    1.  The Week -- Why does everyone hate the Tea Party?

    Really? 73% of people supporting or being neutral on the Tea Party means everyone hates the Tea Party?

     

    The Week - Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

    2. Taylor Marsh - No One Supports the Tea Party Anymore:

    Well, if by "no one" you mean over 1 in 5 Americans, slightly more than self-identify as liberal:

    Taylor Marsh Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

    That's not the headline you will see, of course. Instead, Gallup headlines its story about its most recent polling to emphasize the negative about Tea Party support, Tea Party Support Dwindles to Near-Record Low.

    Gallup Tea Party Support 9-26-2013

    But it you look at Gallups chart, it shows a 2% drop in support for the Tea Party in the past year and a 2% drop in opposition to the Tea Party, and both are near record lows.  Gallup Tea Party Support Chart 9-26-2013 There's only one brief time period when opposition to the Tea Party was significantly lower, but opposition now is right in the 25-29% range it's typically been in.  Tea Party support is significantly lower than three years ago, but about where it was two years ago.  So the drop took place two years ago, not recently as the Gallup headline (picked up in the mainstream media) would have you believe. Why highlight just the drop in support?  Because. Moreover, the percentage of people who consider themselves Tea Pary supporters is slightly larger than those who consider themselves liberal, as measured in Gallup's ideological self-identification survey from 2012. Considering the multi-year war on the Tea Party by Democrats, many Republicans, and the media, it is astounding that the Tea Party continues to stay more or less even in its support over the past two years.  A 2% drop is hardly meaningful, and could just be variations within the margin of error in the poll, which was +/- 3%. Also consider that half the electorate has no opinion one way or the other.  So put it another way, almost 3/4 of the American electorate is not opposed to the Tea Party! Think about it another way, if you were at a dinner table with four other people who represented the American electorate, one of the people at the table would be a Tea Party supporter.  And two others would have no opinion. Be afraid, be very afraid. Update: If Gallup wanted to be completely neutral, it could have written its headline as "Support and Opposition to Tea Party Stable." Instead, Gallup's anti-Tea Party spin is being picked up gladly at outlets such as TPM:

    TPM Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

    This is possibly the dumbest headline of all, from Taylor Marsh:

    Meteorologists who examine their prognosticative skill often notice a curious phenomena.  Forecasts for snow on December Twenty-fourths and Twenty-fifths have higher probabilities than forecasts for Twenty-sixths or Twenty-sevenths.  This disparity is inverted on the Fourth of July, where probabilities for rain are lower than for the...

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