Most Read
    Image 01 Image 02 Image 03

    Polling Tag

    Republican Presidential candidates wanting a podium on the debate main stage will have to first qualify. CNBC set a 3% polling floor for the upcoming October 28th presidential debate. There will be an undercard debate, but that too has a polling floor. To qualify for the kiddie table, candidates must have received at least 1% in any one national poll -- no averages here.

    If anyone is wondering what's behind the high poll numbers for political outsiders in this election, a new poll from FOX News has possible answers. A startling number of Republican primary voters feel betrayed by the party. Dana Blanton has the details:
    Fox News Poll: Outsiders rule 2016 GOP field, support for Biden nearly doubles Most Republicans feel betrayed by their party -- and show their displeasure by supporting outsiders over establishment candidates in the GOP presidential race. Real-estate mogul Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are the favorites in the Republican race in the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election. Neither has held elected office before and yet the two of them -- together with businesswoman Carly Fiorina -- capture the support of more than half of GOP primary voters...

    Following her outstanding performance in the CNN GOP debate, Carly Fiorina has overtaken Ben Carson for second place in the GOP field.  According to a CNN poll released today, both Trump and Ben Carson have lost some support, while Carly has surged from 3% early this month to 15%.

    Carly Fiorina shot into second place in the Republican presidential field on the heels of another strong debate performance, and Donald Trump has lost some support, a new national CNN/ORC poll shows.

    The survey, conducted in the three days after 23 million people tuned in to Wednesday night's GOP debate on CNN, shows that Trump is still the party's front-runner with 24% support. That, though, is an 8 percentage point decrease from earlier in the month when a similar poll had him at 32%.

    Fiorina ranks second with 15% support -- up from 3% in early September. She's just ahead of Ben Carson's 14%, though Carson's support has also declined from 19% in the previous poll.

    Driving Trump's drop and Fiorina's rise: a debate in which 31% of Republicans who watched said Trump was the loser, and 52% identified Fiorina as the winner.

    Another candidate whose numbers have risen since the debate is Marco Rubio.

    For everything that might be wrong with large media outlets, there's no escaping the control they wield over election cycles. They possess the power to crush White House dreams or make them a reality. Which is part of why headlines like this are hilarious: media influence elections politico headline donald trump decline scott walker Yesterday, we discussed a report released by the Media Research Center that revealed CNN devoted a whopping 78% of its GOP primary coverage to Donald Trump. The skewed timeshare was reflected in the network's GOP debate held Wednesday, the first 45 minutes of which were questions about their favorite subject -- Donald Trump. The end game? Ratings. And it worked for CNN. The cycle is relatively simple: how the media churns and burns through candidates

    Quinnipiac University released a new poll today showing a slight shift in the way Democrats perceive their potential field of candidates. The numbers also indicate that those surveyed on the Republican end still crave candidates who by their nature are separated from "business as usual" in Washington. More from Quinnipiac:
    Vice President Joseph Biden runs slightly better than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton against leading Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential sweepstakes, and has the best favorability rating among top Republican and Democratic candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. Donald Trump leads the crowded Republican pack with 28 percent, up from 20 percent in a July 30 national survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is the highest tally and widest margin for any Republican so far in this election. Ben Carson has 12 percent, with 7 percent each for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. No other Republican tops 6 percent and 11 percent are undecided. Trump also tops the "no way" list as 26 percent of Republican voters say they would definitely not support him. Bush is next with 18 percent. Clinton leads the Democratic field with 45 percent, down from 55 percent July 30, with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 22 percent and Biden at 18 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent with 11 percent undecided. This is Sanders' highest tally and closest margin. Clinton tops the Democrats' "no way" list with 11 percent.
    Biden rising, Clinton down, and a whole lot of love/hate for Trump. Sounds like business as usual. The people at Quinnipiac must have sensed that, because the second chunk of their data has proven a source of endless entertainment. Pollsters asked their sample to evaluate the field based on the first word that came to mind when they thought of a particular candidate. The three most common words used to describe Clinton? "Liar," "dishonest," and "untrustworthy." Also making appearances were "criminal," "crook," and the B-word: Poll Word Cloud Association Hillary Quinnipiac 8-27-2015

    Polling released by Rasmussen Tuesday show's the "Hillary meter" dropping dramatically. Rasmussen explains:
    Last month, we introduced this year’s edition of the Hillary Meter to regularly update public perceptions of the former first lady on her march to the White House. Why a Hillary Meter and not one for, say, Jeb Bush or Donald Trump? Because for one thing, Clinton is far and away the leader in the race for next year’s Democratic nomination, while the winner of the Republican race is anyone’s guess. Secondly, the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of State is an internationally known and highly polarizing figure – greatly admired by many on the left, extremely disliked on the right – who may end up being the nation’s first woman president.
    The Hillary Meter is not indicative of who surveyed likely voters want, but rather who they believe will win. Also of note is that individuals surveyed are likely voters and not registered voters. Likely voters tend to (but not always) have a lower propensity for election day turn out. Though the Huffington Post argues that if 2014 is indicative of future elections -- that distinction might not make much difference any longer.

    Long ago and far away I predicted that the effect on Hillary's presidential campaign of the multiple scandals would be cumulative. Since a large portion of the electorate, the younger generation, didn't know the real Hillary of the 1990s, Hillary's vulnerability was that the manufactured "nice grandma" and glass-ceiling breaker image of her would be supplanted by the controlling, paranoid figure of the 1990s. There is increasing evidence that the scandals, particularly the email scandal, is having an effect. You can see from the HuffPo Pollster chart that Hillary has been on a horrible favorability trajectory for the past two years: There is more evidence today, in an AP-Gfk Poll that shows Hillary's favorability dropping to 39% among all voters, and even dropped among Democrats (though still high):

    Media bias is no longer a problem perceived only by conservative bloggers. A Gallup poll last fall found 60% didn't trust mass media but a new survey from USA Today and the Newseum Institute finds that 70% of Americans believe the media is biased. Clearly, the scandals of Brian Williams and George Stephanopolous played a role. Bradford Thomas of Truth Revolt:
    Media Fail: 70% Believe News Reporting Intentionally Biased A new survey by USA Today and the First Amendment Center found that Americans' distrust of the news media has skyrocketed over the last year, the number of American adults believing news reporting is biased jumping up to 70 percent, while less than a quarter now say they trust the news media. The 2015 State of the First Amendment Survey released Friday found that only 24 percent of American adults believe that "overall, the news media tries to report the news without bias," a 17-point drop from last year and the lowest number since the poll began in 2004. More than two-thirds, 70 percent, disagreed with that statement, a 15-point increase since last year.
    One positive finding in the survey was an increase in support for the First Amendment.

    Frank Luntz recently conducted polling of American "opinion elites" attitudes toward Israel. The results, but not the data, were published in an article by David Horvitz, Editor in Chief of The Times of Israel, Israel losing Democrats, ‘can’t claim bipartisan US support,’ top pollster warns:
    Three quarters of highly educated, high income, publicly active US Democrats — the so-called “opinion elites” — believe Israel has too much influence on US foreign policy, almost half of them consider Israel to be a racist country, and fewer than half of them believe that Israel wants peace with its neighbors. These are among the findings of a new survey carried out by US political consultant Frank Luntz. Detailing the survey results to The Times of Israel on Sunday, Luntz called the findings “a disaster” for Israel. He summed them up by saying that the Democratic opinion elites are converting to the Palestinians, and “Israel can no longer claim to have the bipartisan support of America.” He said he “knew there was a shift” in attitudes to Israel among US Democrats “and I have been seeing it get worse” in his ongoing polls. But the new findings surprised and shocked him, nonetheless. “I didn’t expect it to become this blatant and this deep.”
    Read the rest of Horvitz's article for more details. The article created huge concern in pro-Israel circles, and delusional euphoria among Israel haters. But is the sky really falling on Israel? I have written a response, published in The Times of Israel.

    We interrupt your regular programming about Jeb Bush and Donald Trump to bring you this report about the Republican nomination for 2016. Scott Walker now leads the field. Jonathan Easley of The Hill:
    Walker leads nationally in new poll Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads a tight field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling. Walker is alone in first place in the poll with 17 percent, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 15 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 13 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 12 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 11 percent. That’s a big jump for Bush, who was at 11 percent support in the same poll last month. However, Bush will begin his quest for the GOP nomination with a negative favorability rating among Republicans, according to the poll. Only 37 percent said they have a positive view of Bush, against 40 percent who have a negative view. Bush is dragged down by those who identify as “very conservative,” with only 32 percent of those saying they have a positive view of Bush. Bush is the top choice among self-described “moderate” Republican primary voters.

    Still ten months away from New Hampshire's primary, and with only one official candidate, this election season is sure to be a horse race. A poll released by Suffolk University Thursday shows Jeb Bush and Scott Walker taking early leads among likely voters. Conducted between March 21-24, Jeb Bush is the early favorite of 19%, with Walker trailing just behind at 14%. According to Suffolk University:
    Rand Paul (7 percent), and businessman Donald Trump, who was testing the waters in New Hampshire last week, (6 percent). Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who on Sunday night tweeted his intention to run for president, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were tied at 5 percent each, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson tied with 3 percent. Ten other candidates received less than 2 percent, and 24 percent were undecided.
    An incredibly crowded field, splintered special interest groups, PACs galore, and a primary race starting 20 months before the election, the 2016 election cycle is sure to be a fun one. Patrick O'Connor explains what this means for candidates joining the race:
    The candidate field looks unusually crowded, with more than a dozen contenders appealing to different slices of the GOP. The rise of super PACs allows candidates to stay in the race longer than before. And nominating rules meant to compress the process may complicate a front-runner’s ability to amass the delegates necessary to win.

    Even though the all-out battle to "raise the wage" has fizzled, Americans still have workers' rights on their minds---and polling data shows that they may be more sympathetic to higher wages and more lenient workplace conditions that we previously thought. A new poll of adult Americans (not just "likely voters") shows that more than half the country supports raising the minimum wage, as well as worker-friendly changes to laws governing paid sick leave and parental leave. Via the AP:
    Proposals to increase the federal minimum wage, as well as to require employers to give paid leave to their employees, find few objections among Americans as a whole. Six in 10 Americans favor raising the minimum wage, including nearly half who are strongly in favor, the AP-GfK Poll shows, while only 2 in 10 are opposed. Six in 10 also favor requiring all employers to give paid time off to employees when they are sick, while two-thirds favor requiring all employers to give time off to employees after the birth of a child. Among Republicans, about half support requiring employers to give paid sick leave and 55 percent support a requirement for paid parental leave. But the minimum wage divides Republicans more closely, with only 4 in 10 in favor, 31 percent opposed and 27 percent not leaning either way. Half of moderate-to-liberal Republicans, but just a third of conservative Republicans, favor a minimum wage increase. About 8 in 10 Democrats and a majority of independents favor each of these workplace proposals.

    Candidates have been criss-crossing their respective districts for well over a year now, laying out their platforms and making promises about how they'll bring change to the offices they hope to hold. But judging by Gallup's latest poll, Americans aren't necessarily buying what their potential representatives are selling. With just days to go before the election, the Congressional approval rating is still hovering just above its all-time low. Via Gallup:
    Congressional job approval in October matches the 14% average found so far in 2014. The current approval figure is the lowest found in October of a midterm election year since Gallup began tracking this measure in 1974. Gallup has found that low congressional approval ratings before midterm elections are linked to higher seat turnover, especially for members of the president's party. For example, congressional job approval in October was 21% in 2010, and 23% in 1994, two years when the president's party lost a large number of seats.

    Let's face it, Alison Grimes hasn't been helped by any of her recent missteps regarding whether she voted for Obama. She repeated the refusal to answer the question on local TV again:
    U.S. Senate Candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes continues to refuse to say who she voted for in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. On Friday, Grimes sat down with WYMT’s Steve Hensley for a taping of an episode of “Issues & Answers: The Mountain Edition.” Here is an excerpt from the interview: Steve Hensley: “You've also said in the past that you voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential primary so what's the difference?” Secretary Grimes: “In 2008 I was not Secretary of State and what happened at that convention is all on record so nothing that wasn't already fully disclosed was offered up. It's a matter of principle as I told Bill Goodman, I'm the chief elections official. It is a constitutional right provided in Kentucky's constitution for all Kentuckians to cast their ballot in privacy.” Hensley: “If President Obama offered to campaign for you in Kentucky, would you accept?” Grimes: “Well, I've said I speak for myself, Senator McConnell doesn't understand that. He and his henchmen have spent about 50 million dollars trying to put Barack Obama on the ballot this year. He's not, I am.”

    Any reasonable person keeping up with the news cycle knows that Democratic leadership doesn't inspire much confidence in the American people. Legislation dies in the Senate at the hands of a petulant majority leader; both the IRS and the DOJ have come under fire for targeting Americans based on political affiliation; our President golfs while the Middle East burns. In fact, one might say the only thing Democrats are really good at is riling up the base over token "hot button" issues that never go anywhere in Congress, but make for good primetime talkathon fodder. A new poll released by Gallup yesterday has quantified the skepticism of the American people, and shows empirical proof that the games Democrats play have serious consequences when it comes to the level of trust voters have in their ability to lead on the major issues. In late September, Gallup asked registered voters to rate the importance of 13 preselected issues, and then to identify which party they believed would do a better job handling those issues. The results looked like this: h7fjmcrciu6d7y5yx_-zjq

    According to a recent Gallup poll, voters will be sending a message to President Obama---and it may not bode well for Democrats. Out of the just over 1000 registered voters surveyed, 32% of respondents said that their vote in the midterms would serve as a message of opposition to Obama; in contrast, 20% of those surveyed said that their vote would serve as a message of support. Gallup's writeup of the poll explains why this is significant in terms of Republicans' chances in November:
    Gallup first asked this question in 1998, the year Republicans were moving toward impeaching President Bill Clinton for lying about his affair with a White House intern. That year, when Clinton's approval rating was 63%, more voters said their choice of candidate in the fall election would be made to show support rather than opposition to Clinton. Democrats had a strong showing in that fall's elections, gaining seats in the House of Representatives, bucking the historical pattern by which the president's party loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. In the next midterm election, voters by an even larger margin said their vote would be made to support rather than oppose President George W. Bush, who had a 66% approval rating at the time of the elections. These attitudes were consistent with the eventual outcome, as Republicans increased their majority in the House and gained majority control of the Senate.
    Gallup Registered Voters Message 2014 Election October That's the shot; now here's the chaser: out of registered voters polled, 58% Republicans said that their vote would act as a message of opposition to Obama, while only 38% of Democrats polled said their vote would act as a message of support.

    A new poll by Gallup shows that overall trust in the mass media has bottomed out at its previous all-time low of 40%. Via Gallup:
    Prior to 2004, Americans placed more trust in mass media than they do now, with slim majorities saying they had a "great deal" or "fair amount" of trust. But over the course of former President George W. Bush's re-election season, the level of trust fell significantly, from 54% in 2003 to 44% in 2004. Although trust levels rebounded to 50% in 2005, they have failed to reach a full majority since. Americans' trust in the media in recent years has dropped slightly in election years, including 2008, 2010, 2012, and again this year -- only to edge its way back up again in the following odd-numbered years. Although the differences between the drops and the recoveries are not large, they suggest that something about national elections triggers skepticism about the accuracy of the news media's reporting.
    The fact that trust in the MSM dips in election years isn't a surprise, and it says a lot about the media's place in America's electoral process. If only 40% of Americans trust what the media is saying, does the media play as big a role in swaying votes left as it once did? The midterms should be a good indicator of this, although I think "trust" has less to do with overall effect than does the constant bombardment (and and hero worship, in some cases) of one name over another.

    Rasmussen Reports has released new data showing that just 63% of likely U.S. voters know which political party controls the Senate and the House of Representatives.
    Twenty percent (20%) mistakenly believe Democrats control the House, while 17% are not sure. Similarly, 18% think the GOP is in charge in the Senate, but 19% are not sure. ... This is even less awareness than voters expressed in March of last year. Remember, too, that these are respondents who are the likeliest to vote this November and so presumably are more politically aware than most other Americans.
    Less than sixty days out from the midterms, and 47% of our most well-informed voters have no idea what this election is about. No wonder the media gets away with murder every time they report on Congress. I've written before about the dangers of pulling away and limiting conservative outreach to voters we're reasonably sure are comfortable with our platform. Polling data like this should only serve to reenforce that idea; unless we are reaching outside of the bubble, we're leaving valuable votes on the table:
    Women and those under 40 are less aware of who’s in charge of both congressional chambers than men and older voters are. Republicans are more aware than Democrats and unaffiliated voters, but a sizable number of GOP voters don’t know which party controls which house of Congress.