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    Polling Tag

    There are varying levels of horrible results for conservatives in the upcoming election. Based on current polling, it certainly looks like Hillary will be the next president. You can argue whether that is better or worse than the alternative for conservatives, but there is no serious argument that losing either the House or the Senate is horrible. In the case of the Senate, it will pave the way for Hillary to push through disastrous judicial nominations. And yes, expect Majority Leader Schumer to raise the nuclear option to the Supreme Court level if Democrats control the Senate by even a single (tie-breaking) vote. The Senate could go either way at present polling. But the House is what stands between conservatives and the political abyss. Think of where we would be if in the first two years of his presidency, when Obama controlled both houses of Congress, he had focused on passing a wide-ranging legislative agenda rather than focusing on Obamacare. All of the executive orders and actions that have been questioned by the courts and can be reversed by the next president would have the force of legislation. Assuming Hillary is the next president and wins in a landslide, Republican control of the House may be the last line of defense.

    Trump's now infamous "hot mic" comments while aboard an Access Hollywood tour bus have caused not only a flurry of GOP endorsement withdrawals and calls for his withdrawing from the race, but according to one poll released today, they've also prompted GOP voters to demand that the Republican party continue to support Trump. From a former RNC chair saying Trump's campaign "can't be salvaged" and Condoleezza Rice saying "Enough" and calling on Trump to resign to such disparate members of Congress as Jason Chaffetz, John Thune, Mike Lee, and John McCain withdrawing their endorsements, the political class on the Republican side has made its feelings about Trump in light of the most recent revelations quite clear. Equally clear, at this point, is that some Trump mega-donors and the majority of Trump voters want the GOP to stand by their man.

    One of my favorite articles not published at LI this year is the New York Times piece flummoxed by and bemoaning the fact that Obama's calls for gun control go nowhere and serve only to increase gun sales. Here's an excerpt:
    More guns were sold in December [2015] than almost any other month in nearly two decades, continuing a pattern of spikes in sales after terrorist attacks and calls for stricter gun-buying laws, according to federal data released in January. The heaviest sales last month, driven primarily by handgun sales, followed a call from President Obama to make it harder to buy assault weapons after the terrorist attack in San Bernardino, Calif.

    The current polling gives little rational reason to think Donald Trump will win in November. No matter how you slice it -- national 4-way, national head-to-head, battleground states, electoral college, unfavorability -- Trump is deeply underwater, as this polling average chart at Real Clear Politics today shows: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ The trends are not any better for Trump than the averages. The two weeks after the Republican Convention were a complete disaster for Trump, from which he has not yet recovered:

    Electoral success is looking bleak for Republican nominee Donald Trump and his supporters. Among the conventional poll-reading wisdom is that trends, not individual polls, provide for a more accurate overview. Despite his headline popularity and ability to pull around 30% in primary elections, Trump has never polled consistently well against Democratic contender Hillary Clinton.

    You see, this is the problem with having a campaign predicated on the fact that you're leading in all the polls -- when polling data turns unfavorable, your alleged mandate dissipates. A new poll released by Fox News shows Hillary with a double-digit lead over The Donald. Hillary might me the least trusted presidential candidate in history, but she's still crushing Trump (if data is accurate, of course).

    New polling data released from Public Policy Polling indicated 13% or respondents would rather the Earth suffer a collision with a giant meteor before voting for Hillary or Trump. Apparently, "Giant Meteor" is more popular than any independent candidate actually running for president. Giant Meteor was a particular favorite among independent voters, where it polled at 27% to Clinton's 43% and Trump's 38%.

    According to a new poll conducted by Harvard, a majority of Millennials reject the idea of capitalism. It's no surprise that a generation of people who grew up in the era of "everyone gets a trophy" reject the idea of unequal rewards based on hard work. Millennials were educated largely by public schools obsessed with the idea of fairness and afraid in some cases to let children play the game of tag. One has to wonder if the participants responded on their iPhones. The Washington Post published the details of the poll:
    A majority of millennials now reject capitalism, poll shows In an apparent rejection of the basic principles of the U.S. economy, a new poll shows that most young people do not support capitalism.

    Here's the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

    Mississippi · 40 delegates

    Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET There's only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it's by 24 points.

    Michigan · 59 delegates

    Last poll closes at 9:00 PM ET Trump ahead by double digits BUT Kasich surging and Rubio falling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

    Idaho · 32 delegates

    Last poll closes at 11:00 PM ET Only one recent (2/26) poll, showing Trump ahead by 11 points. Hardly enough evidence to predict an outcome.

    Hawaii (caucus) · 19 delegates

    Last poll closes at 12:00 AM ET No polling. More to follow.

    I realize that at this point polls don't matter too much, if at all. But they still interest me, because they're the best evidence we've got about public opinion. They can also tell us something about trends, and the trend for Hillary right now appears to be down. The newest national poll is from Fox, based on phone interviews that were conducted from Jan 4-7 and featuring 1006 registered voters, the vast majority of whom said they intend to vote. For Republican respondents the margin of error was 5%, which is rather large. For the entire survey, the margin of error was 3%, which is more typical but still worthy of note when the figures are close. It's very interesting to see what's happening with the projected head-to-head battles of some of the Republican leaders against Hillary Clinton. Mostly the results seem to preserve the patterns each candidate has already established for quite some time, with Rubio doing the best of all (a +9 lead, more than he's had before). Cruz is next with a +7 lead (also bigger than he had before), and Trump has a +3 lead.

    Whether it's an Overton Window effect, an example of Boyd's “OODA Loop," or something else, Ted Cruz is enjoying a surge in both state and national polls. According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Cruz is now only four points behind the current Republican front-runner, Donald Trump. CNN reports:
    Donald Trump's lead over Ted Cruz has shrunk to just 4 percentage points in the second national poll after last week's Republican debate. Trump wins 28% support in a Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday, with Cruz nipping at his heels with 24%. Following that pair is Marco Rubio with 12% support, Ben Carson with 10%, Chris Christie with 6% and Jeb Bush with 4%. The survey was in the field entirely after CNN's debate in Las Vegas on Dec. 15. Cruz has been steadily climbing and overtaking Trump in Iowa, and there is some evidence that the Texas senator is managing to perform similarly nationally.

    Despite acting a bit more aggressive in the last Republican debate, Jeb Bush has been unable to move his poll numbers up and break away from the pack. Dana Blanton reports at FOX News:
    Fox News Poll: Trump jumps, Cruz climbs, Carson sinks in GOP race Donald Trump, a candidate even Republicans once considered a side show, increases his lead yet again in the nomination race, according to the latest Fox News national poll. The poll also finds Ted Cruz ticking up, Marco Rubio slipping, and Ben Carson dropping. Trump hits a high of 39 percent among Republican primary voters, up from 28 percent a month ago. The increase comes mainly from men, white evangelical Christians, and voters without a college degree -- and at the expense of Carson...

    The Obama's Administration's whitewashing of language might have played well with the social justice warrior brigade, but voters aren't buying it. A survey released by Rasmussen found 60% of likely voters believe America is at war with Radical Islam. Rasmussen reported:
    President Obama, Hillary Clinton and other senior Democrats refuse to say America is at war with “radical Islamic terrorism” for fear of insulting all Muslims, but voters beg to disagree. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism. Just 24% share the president’s position and disagree. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided.
    Pouring salt in the social justice wound, a whopping 56% of self-identifying Democrats also believe radical Islamist terrorists are our foe compared to 70% of those identifying as Republican. And the data just gets more interesting:

    In light of the terror attack in Paris and (presumably) Obama's weak performance against ISIS and bizarrely petulant performance in Turkey, terrorism now rivals the economy as the single most important issue to American voters. ABCNews reports:
    Terrorism suddenly rivals the economy as the single most important issue to Americans in the 2016 presidential election -- and a year out, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds more people paying close attention to the contest than at this point in any race back to 1988. After years of dominating the political landscape, the economy now has company. Given the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris, 28 percent of Americans now call terrorism the top issue in their choice for president, compared with 33 percent who cite the economy. Nothing else comes close. Attention, moreover, is focused as never before. Three-quarters of Americans say they are closely following the 2016 race, including three in 10 who are following it very closely. That’s the highest level of attention at this point in a presidential race in polls back nearly 30 years.
    According to this report:  "Partisan divisions are 33-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

    According to a Rasmussen poll released Monday morning, more voters than ever believe terrorists have an advantage over the United States and her allies. who is winning the war on terror rasmussen Conducted from October 4-5, the poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters, asking two questions: 1) Who is winning the War on Terrorism—the United States and its allies or the terrorists? 2) Is the United States too involved in the Middle East, not involved enough, or is the involvement about right?

    A poll released by Investor's Business Daily Friday shows Dr. Ben Carson sailing past Donald Trump. While Trump's numbers are steadily declining, he remains one of three contenders pulling in doubly digits in IBD's poll, the third being Senator Rubio. WEBprez100515_345.gif.cms IBD writes:
    The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump. Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided. The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.

    A new Pew poll dropped on Friday and told us what we already know about this election cycle: American voters are ready for something different. We could have told you that months ago, citing the popularity of candidates like Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina as a prime example of been-there-done-that fatigue. The latest polling data (1,502 adults were surveyed, including 1,136 registered voters) serves to validate those candidates' rising stars More from Pew:
    Since March, the share of all registered voters who say it is more important for a presidential candidate to have “new ideas and a different approach” has surged – with virtually all of the increase coming among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Today, by more than two-to-one (65% to 29%), Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say it is more important that a candidate have new ideas than “experience and a proven record.” Just five months ago, GOP voters valued experience and a proven record over new ideas, 57% to 36%.
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