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    Polling Tag

    At one level, nothing has changed about Trump. He still stirs the pot on Twitter, the staffing changes continue, and the sense of turmoil never seems to leave. Certainly, #TheResistance against Trump has not changed. If anything, the opposition to Trump has gone from foaming at the mouth to ... Exorcist-like goo bursting head spins. And that's just CNN.

    Mark Penn, Democrat strategist and former pollster for Bill Clinton during his presidency, is reviled by today's regressive Democrats.  Happily, his truth bombs land amongst his leftist audience with a fizzle amid looks of scathing disdain. Penn's latest attempt to speak truth to the left's waning political power addresses why, as co-director of the Harvard-Harris Poll, he believes that the left is still getting everything wrong, particularly when it comes to polls and President Trump.

    If we judged elections that are over a year (congressional midterms) and three years (presidential) away based on current approval ratings and popularity polling, Donald Trump would seem done for. Indeed, that is the prevailing media narrative. Though there was a recent blip upward, Trumps favorability and job approval numbers are poor. Here is a chart of Trump's job approval ratings from 538 based on a composite of all polls:

    New polling data suggests that there's a silent majority of millennials (those aged 18-34) who ardently support both free speech and religious freedom. The Fund for American Studies conducted the poll and found that contrary to what seems like a never-ending stream of headlines touting millennial love of safe spaces, hatred for ideological and social diversity, and affinity towards homogenized speech might not be telling the whole story. The survey "measures how Americans define freedom and whether they generally support “more” or “less” government interference in their daily lives."

    As we consider the flood of polls proclaiming that President Trump's approval numbers are lower than those of any other president at this point in his presidency, a former Clinton pollster and current co-director of the  Harvard-Harris Poll takes issue with the majority of political polls' methodology. Mark Penn, writing at the Hill, refers to the problem as a "polling bubble" that involves both polling entities and the media.  He pinpoints three reasons for the unreliability of polls about Trump:  polls directed at "all adults," polls focused on sensationalized "stories," and participants' unwillingness to be honest about their views.

    Polling conducted by Gallup earlier this year found that the number of Democrats "extremely" or "very proud" to be American is down by eleven percentage points compared to similar polling last year. There's been little change in patriotic sentiment for those self-identifying as either Republican or Independent. Gallup first conducted the poll in 2001.

    Rather than focus on Gorsuch's judicial qualifications and whether he would interpret and apply the law aptly, Democratic Senators on the Judiciary Committee have chosen to spend their allotted time prodding Gorsuch's political beliefs. There seems to be universal confusion in the Democratic camp about the role of the judiciary, and instead, Gorsuch has been questioned as though he would serve as an extension of the legislative branch.

    For several years we have been examining Gallup and Pew surveys of attitudes among Americans of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. What we have seen is a trend of overall support for Israel reaching all-time or near-all-time highs. At the same time, there is a slice of the population in which the support has been slipping -- the left-wing of the Democratic Party. That makes sense based on a number of trends we post about unrelated to polling: The intensive global push, particularly on campuses, to demonize Israel; "intersectionality" theory which makes Israel the central antagonist in the racial and identity politics of the progressive movement; the identification of Israel with capitalism which increasingly itself is demonized among the socialist-friendly section of the Democratic Party that supported Bernie Sanders.

    This race is too close to call. A shift in any state could change the outcome. The Real Clear Politics No-Toss Ups map (Featured Image) has Hillary winning by a few electoral points. She could win by a few, lose by a few, or win by a lot. It's that volatile. Overall, she's up about 3% in national polls. You can't ignore that. I'd rather be up 3 than down 3 any day.

    As we approach the final presidential debate later tonight, the polling looks grim for Donald Trump. In a sense, Trump never really recovered from his post Democratic convention fall, when his public feud with the Khan family wasted what had been a Trump rally after the Republican convention. There was a rebound for a couple of weeks, as Trump maintained uncharacteristic composure and relative silence as Hillary's email and other scandals took a toll. But all of that went down the tubes as Trump took the bait on the "fat shaming" allegation after the first debate. Does ANYONE even remember the woman's name at this point? She was just a Clinton prop used to set up what was to come, the NBC tape of comments about groping women and the rollout of a series of women accusing Trump of groping them in some form or another.
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