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    NY-23 2016 Tag

    To all the Trump supporters out there, and to The Donald, don't get your hopes up about Trump defeating Hillary in New York State in a general election. It's delusion. Trump does have a strong base of support in Upstate NY, the vast area north and west of New York City. Upstate NY Map But the downstate Democrat vote will swamp him, which is exactly what a Sienna College polling institute poll shows:

    The last two Democratic congressional nominees in my home district NY-23, which stretches along the "Southern Tier," have been Ithaca-area liberals. Nate Shinagawa ran a credible campaign in 2012, and lost by almost exactly the party difference in the district, which is R+3. Democrats had high hopes for Martha Robertson in 2014, but she collapsed under the weight of her past progressive policies and Legal Insurrection's investigations, and lost by 25 points. It appears that national Democrats are giving up on running another Ithaca liberal, and are bringing in an unknown retired military officer from out of state to challenge incumbent Republican Tom Reed, as reported in the Buffalo News, Former White House military aide Plumb to challenge Rep. Tom Reed:
    A former top military aide in the Obama White House has returned home to the Jamestown area to prepare to challenge Rep. Tom Reed in the 2016 election. John F. Plumb, who served as director of defense policy and strategy at the National Security Council, told The Buffalo News that family and friends persuaded him to move back to the Southern Tier, thinking he could be a strong Democratic challenger to Reed, the Republican from Corning...
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