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    2014 Election Tag

    At which Democrats should start freaking out. The polling just keeps getting worse and worse.  A couple of months ago the generic congressional election polling was having Democrats and Establishment Republicans (yes, there is such a thing) ready to wrap the death of the Republican Party around the necks of Ted Cruz and Mike Lee. Good times, good times, for Democrats. It was a false prognosis, because Cruz and Lee were trying to stop the disaster known as Obamacare. The legacy will be Democrats going to the mat to protect and preserve Obamacare. If Democrats owned Obamacare before, as a result of the efforts of Cruz, Lee and others, Democrats swallowed Obamacare whole in September. Now everything has changed because Obamacare and Democrats are one and the same. Via Hot Air, this chart which caused Charlie Cook to declare Holy Sh-t! (my paraphrase), should make Democrats want to regurgitate their Obamacare feast:
    The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.
    Congressional Generic Polling Data Chart 12-6-2013 While many Democrats are desperate for relief from Obamacare, those who are to tied to the law's passage, like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana Purchase fame, are choosing to double down:

    So often we hear Democrats demand Republican capitulation on a host of issues -- some social, some economic -- because Republicans are on "the wrong side of history." That argument was made, in highly perjorative, eliminationist ways during the epic struggle of Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and others to stop Obamacare before it inflicted more pain. That effort to stop Obamacare prior to the failed rollout of was belittled by people like Timothy Egan in The New York Times as being on the Wrong Side of History, writing on October 3, 2013:
    They are not righteous rebels or principled provocateurs. They are not constitutionalists, using the ruling framework built by the founders. Just the opposite: they are a militant fringe of one party in one house of Congress in one branch of government trying to nullify an established law by extortion. This is not the design of the Constitution. Nor are they Martin Luther King Jr., or Rosa Parks or Winston Churchill — preposterous comparisons made on the floor of Congress by those whose only real fight is with progress.... We know now why Senator Ted Cruz, the most hated man in Washington, said he fears that once Obamacare is up and running people will like it — and then it will be too late for the obstructionists.... They wrecked the car, dug their own grave; no matter what you call it, history’s verdict came early.
    Little did Egan or the others belittling the warnings about Obamacare realize that history's verdict would be against them; that Obamacare was it was not as it was sold and would cause Democrats to scramble for distance; that the Tea Party would be viewed as more in touch with American values than the ideology behind Obamacare; that big government would become the most hated thing outside Washington, even if Ted Cruz remained "the most hated man in Washington." The sweep of history is upon us, and it is not with the bigger government Democratic Party.

    Another conversation I had with myself on Twitter. Last time it was about The Republican Brand.  This time it's about the lunacy of Republicans -- stoked by the media -- panicking over polling last week showing Republicans dropping like a stone into a mountain crevice. Today Pew released its polling, and it found essentially no change in Republican favorability over the past year. Democrats poll better in terms of favorability, but that's been the case for a long time. Republicans actually are in a slightly better position today than a year out from the 2010 Republican landslide, and are rated better in terms of handling the economy and running government. I don't say Pew knows any better than the other pollsters, or vice versa, but that's the point.  Do what's right, and worry about the 2014 polls closer to November 2014.  For God's sake, Republicans, stop acting like bouncing Super Balls based on the latest polling. First some Pew charts:

    Pew Party Favorability 10-15-2013 full

    Pew Mid Term Advantage 10-15-2013

    Pew More Extreme 10-15-2013

    Now my conversation with myself on Twitter:

    Tom Cotton, running for Senate to unseat Mark Pryor in Arkansas, held a blogger telephone conference today. I sat in on it, breaking my usual policy of sitting in a hermetically sealed room with the drapes drawn and the lights out avoiding all human contact. All someone...

    He's running for Senate in Arkansas in a bid to unseat Democrat Mark Pryor. I know almost nothing about Cotton or the Republican field.  Who else is expected to run in the Republican primary? This ad just released by Pryor attacking Cotton with the usual Democratic hyperbole and misdirection, tells me at least Pryor is worried: Expect Cotton or whoever the Republican nominee to hang Obamacare around Pryor's neck: Pryor plays pretty fast and loose with the facts:

    Max Baucus, as noted here, was one of the senate's biggest proponents of ObamaCare. But shortly after he called the implementation of ObamaCare a "train wreck" in April, he decided not to seek re-election. (Baucus apparently believes that ObamaCare's biggest failing is incompetence, not impossibility. I...

    I urged Liz Cheney to run for Senate against Mike Enzi the other night because I didn't like the sense of entitlement exhibited by his supporters, Run, Liz Cheney, Run. I noted that I had nothing against Enzi, and that I didn't know much about him. In...

    In tomorrow's NY Times, a story from Jonathan Martin, formerly of Politico, about a possible Liz Cheney run for Senate in Wyoming in 2014 primarying Mike Enzi. Considering that in 2012 Mitt Romney got 69% of the vote, and John Barrasso got 75%, it seems like a...

    Here we go. Saxby Chambliss will not be running for reelection in 2014: Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss said Friday he will not seek a third term next  year, expressing deep frustration with Washington gridlock that he doesn't see  changing in a divided government. Chambliss, 69, rejected suggestions he...

    But I'm already sizing up Operation Counterweight Senate races for 2014. Don't look back is my motto. Roll Call has a list of Senate races and assessments.   Do any of them have serious primary challengers?  Lindsay Graham seems like he could be vulnerable in theory, but I...