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    Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls

    Something’s happening here: Trump and Ernst surge to substantial leads in final Des Moines Register polls

    If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling

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    The polls are going to drive people to madness, the people that is who obesess about polls. Just because so much of polling is garbage, however, does not mean all polling is garbage.

    It might happen that Biden has a sweep, that can’t be ruled out, if he really, truly is ahead by 7.8% nationally (today’s RCP average). That’s double the Hillary national average advantage.

    But there are just too many things that don’t align with that narrative, that suggest the national averages not only may be more wrong than in 2016, they may be particularly wrong in the swing states that matter and will decide who wins the electoral college.

    I never thought of Iowa as a swing state, but it probably is. Obama won it by 9 points in 2008 and 5 points in 2012, Trump won it by almost 10 points in 2016.

    Iowa also famously recently was put by the Cook Political Report into the toss-up column for both the presidential and Senate races, suggesting Trump was going down hard if he was barely hanging on in a state he won easily in 2016. Man, if Trump is running 10 points behind 2016 and Joni Ernst is in serious trouble, then maybe those national averages are right. Depressing.

    BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE.

    The Des Moines Register just published its final polls, showing Trump up by a lot and Ernst up by several points.

    First, the presidential race, Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades:

    Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.

    The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren’t sure and 5% don’t want to say for whom they will vote.

    In September’s Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.

    The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

    Nate Cohn notes:

    Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.

    That’s the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump’s Midwestern sweep

    Note that this change reflects a Biden collapse. If Biden is collapsing this late in Iowa, it’s reasonable to assume he has a late collapse elsewhere in the Midwest that might not yet be captured in polling:

    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

    Now the Senate, where Democrats have been going hard against Joni Ernst, Iowa Poll: Republican Joni Ernst pulls ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in closing days of U.S. Senate race:

    Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst has pulled ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in the closing stretch of a contentious U.S. Senate race, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

    Ernst leads 46% to 42% over Greenfield, the Iowa Poll shows. Another 3% say they plan to vote for someone else, 1% do not plan to vote in the Senate race, 3% are unsure and 4% already voted but did not want to say which candidate they support.

    The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points….

    In June, Greenfield led Ernst by 3 percentage points, 46% to 43%. In September, Greenfield maintained that 3-percentage-point lead, 45% to 42%. The margin of error for both of those polls was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

    Something’s happening here. It could be that there is a late Trump surge, and the late-deciders are breaking for Trump as they did in 2016. It could be that Republican chances of hanging onto the Senate are better than thought.

    The Des Moines Register final polling may be wrong, but it’s a sign that it ain’t over, until it’s over — which in the case of several states will be days after Election Day.

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    Comments


    Trump will win here without much of a problem. My big concern is down ballot. I’ve done some driving around in the big anthills around here. It’s hard to do because they’re grim and ugly, alien and foreboding with houses packed one on top of the next. The thing I noticed most is that while literally everywhere else there are Trump signs galore with only a very rare Biden sign – but in the anthill, nothing at all. Maybe it’s against their property restrictions, but it’s just weird. We should be OK this year with Trump’s coattails, but his is a cult of personality, not support for Republicans. The big test is going to be in two and four years when that cult of personality is no longer the big draw.


     
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    Cornfed | November 1, 2020 at 4:32 pm

    Selzer is reputed to be a pretty good pollster. Her numbers have never been too far out of whack, unlike some others, so i suspect they’re seeing something real. This is extraordinarily good news for the Senate. The Democrats have spent more on the senate race here than even the Biden campaign. I’ve never seen anything like it.
    Iowa is most definitely a swing state. Always has been. Bush 2x, Obama 2x, now Trump about to go 2x. Thing about Iowa is, it’s not very ideological. Iowans vote on bread and butter issues and are turned off by too much far right or far left rhetoric. That’s why Steve King got primaried, for example, and it’s why Trump, despite his polarizing presonality, will carry the state vs a Democrat party that has gone too far left with radical nonsense. Iowans distrust extremism and it’s not hard to paint the Democrats as extremist, since that’s actually what they are!


     
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    NotCoach | November 2, 2020 at 10:19 am

    2020: The year polling dies from Wuhan Lung Rot.

    Here is what I think will happen. Immediately after the reelection of Trump the terrorist wing of the Democratic Party (Antifa/BLM) will riot nationwide. Then the media will invent a narrative of widespread voter fraud (yeah, yeah, yeah, we all know they deny voter fraud is a thing, but that won’t stop them) in order to delegitimize a Trump victory. Perhaps someone will even drop a fake dossier outlining Russian/Trump collusion for rigging the election.


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