How does this happen!?
A CNN poll has Florida Democrats up in the gubernatorial and Senate races, but I’m really shaking my head with the governor one.
Somehow the CNN poll has Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum up by 12 points over Republican nominee Ron DeSantis while other polls show Gillum with maybe a 1 point lead. Seems a little off, doesn’t it?
Gillum vs. DeSantis
The poll took place between October 16 and October 20 and reached out to 1,012 respondents in Florida.
Gillum’s 54% to 42% lead rests on advantages among women (60% back him vs. 34% who say they favor DeSantis), non-white voters (74% back Gillum, 23% DeSantis), younger voters (60% for Gillum, 33% for DeSantis) and political independents (51% back Gillum, 42% DeSantis). Gillum has also consolidated Democratic support (97% favor him) in a way that DeSantis has not matched on the Republican side (88% back him).
DeSantis immediately railed against the poll, especially since CNN released the poll before the debate between the two men on Sunday. From Florida Politics:
“This poll is as amusing as it is suspicious in that it was released hours before a debate between the two candidates–clearly meant to give the advantage to Andrew Gillum,” said DeSantis surrogate Stephen Lawson.
The campaign criticized a polling sample that gave Democrats a 3-percent edge for a non-presidential election. Pollsters SSRS said the sample included 32 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 39 percent independent of third-party voters.
That NPA turnout, DeSantis officials say, also seems unrealistically high, as independents have never outnumbers Democrats and Republicans at the poll in a Florida statewide election. And in the past four general elections, Republicans outnumbered Democrats at polls.
DeSantis may have a point because when you go to RealClearPolitics, it shows Gillum with an average of +3.7 lead.
A St. Pete Polls poll taken between October 20 and 21 only found Gillum with a 1 point lead. This firm, which is located in Florida, reached out to 1,575 likely voters in Florida.
Cook Political Report still has the governor’s race as a toss-up.
Nelson vs. Scott
The same CNN poll shows Democrat incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson ahead of Republican Gov. Rick Scott by 5 points.
Like I said this one doesn’t have me shaking my head as much as the governor poll, even though the numbers are off compared to other polls. Plus, in this poll, voters aren’t as certain as they are in the governor’s race and Democrats have softer support. From Florida Politics:
Among registered voters, 81 percent have their mind made up but 15 percent could still change their mind. Among likely voters, 86 percent feel certain on their choice but 11 percent still could change.
Again, the Democrat claims softer support. Among registered voters, 79 percent of Nelson supporters have made their final decision, while 82 percent of Scott voters report the same. On a likely voter model, 85 percent of Nelson voters feel certain compared to 88 percent of Scott supporters.
The St. Pete Polls poll, which was taken on October 20 and 21 like the governor poll, has Scott ahead by almost 1 point.
Polls from September 17 to September 30 and September 24 to September 27 had Nelson with a 1 point lead. RealClearPolitics gave Nelson an average of a 1.5 point advantage. Cook Political Report has the race as a toss-upDONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.