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    Could Democrat Sen. Heitkamp Save Her Seat if She Votes for Kavanaugh?

    Could Democrat Sen. Heitkamp Save Her Seat if She Votes for Kavanaugh?

    Down by 10 points in latest poll and respondents want Kavanaugh confirmed.

    An NBC North Dakota News poll shows incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) down by 10 points to her Republican opponent, Rep. Kevin Cramer.

    Cramer is up 51-41. 8% of those polled remain undecided.

    The majority of the respondents named the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh as their main issue.

    Rob Port at shared his analysis:

    The survey was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, an organization I’ve never heard of before. The folks at don’t have them graded, either, so I’m not sure how much stock to put into this particular survey.

    Though, to be fair, I’m not sure how much stock to put in any survey at this point in the cycle. I suspect the reality of the Senate race is that it’s close (certainly much closer than a 10 point Cramer lead), and opinions among the undecided are very fluid. Things could break either way, very quickly.

    Remember that in 2012, when Heitkamp was first elected to the Senate, there was polling out weeks before election day showing her Republican opponent with a 10 point lead. She went on to win the race.

    Still, the fact that Cramer has consistently led every single public poll in this race going back to February makes me think it’s his race to lose at this point.

    The Cook Political Report still has North Dakota has a toss-up, but this is a red state. Heitkamp is the only Democratic to win in the state in the last eight years, but that victory came with less than one percentage point. Plus, President Donald Trump won the state with 63% of the vote and 123,036 more votes than failed Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

    The news about Kavanaugh doesn’t shock me because a Fox News poll in September made in known that those in North Dakota want Kavanaugh. The poll found that “[O]ne in three voters who say they could change their mind before November say they would be less likely to vote for Heitkamp if she opposes Kavanaugh, while 21 percent would be more likely.”

    Judicial Crisis Network has spent $400,000 on ads to encourage Heitkamp and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) to confirm Kavanaugh. Like Heitkamp, Manchin represents a conservative state that chose Trump over Hillary by a large amount and wants Kavanaugh confirmed.

    Here is the group’s ad for Manchin:


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    Albigensian | October 3, 2018 at 10:31 am

    Could Democrat Sen. Heitkamp Save Her Seat if She Votes for Kavanaugh?

    Perhaps. BUT to be at all effective, she’d have to mount a spirited, full-throated defense of Kavanaugh, not just a reluctant and grudging vote to confirm.

    If she were to do so and if she is re-elected she’d emerge as the Democrat’s McCain: give me what I demand, or I’ll not keep party discipline!

    But does she have the stomach to do it?

    She might not win if she votes to confirm but she’ll definitely lose if she votes against confirmation. Her choices are vote no and lose, vote yes and maybe win.

    Matt_SE | October 3, 2018 at 12:49 pm

    Heitkamp is toast. That’s why she’ll be a solid “no” vote regardless of what happens. To betray the Democratic crime family requires some hope that it will benefit you.

      C. Lashown in reply to Matt_SE. | October 3, 2018 at 1:00 pm

      Heitkamp is ‘known’ for pandering to the voters, saying whatever will get her elected and making all sorts of outrageous promises – then voting Democrat as soon as she get’s to Washington.

      I doubt anything will change if she get’s elected. Her opponent, Cramer is another weak GOP loser though, so as is typical, the Republican base really has little choice.

    harleycowboy | October 4, 2018 at 9:30 am

    Voter her out. The other person will have to do until a better candidate arrives.

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