“Although Democrats are preferred in the national poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most”
This is bad. Really bad. For Democrats.
The Wall Street Journal and NBC News just released a new poll, and it shows Trump surging to a 47% approval among registered voters.
In the aftermath of the bitter confirmation fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Republicans have closed the once-large gap between their voters’ and Democrats’ interest in the election. Now, 68% of Republican voters and 72% of Democrats say they are very interested in the election—the highest recorded for either party by the survey in a midterm election.
Also helping Republicans is a rise in President Trump’s job-approval rating to 47%, the highest mark of his time in office, with 49% disapproving his performance. That is an improvement from last month, when 44% approved and 52% disapproved of his performance.
This approval is based on registered voters, but even among likely voters, Trump has a strong 45% approval.
The RCP average approval remains at 44%.
The poll reflects that Democrats still lead in the generic ballot by 9% among likely voters. That’s still a significant lead, so Democrats are still likely to take back the House. But likely is far from certain because you need to look district-by-district. WSJ notes:
Mr. Yang said the poll results include signs that the widely predicted “blue wave” of Democratic gains in the House in 2018 now is running into a “riptide of uncertainty [that] has been created with a surge of Republican intensity.”
Although Democrats are preferred in the national poll overall, their advantage has vanished in the House districts that matter most. In districts rated as the most competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the parties are dead even on the question of which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, Democrats led by 13 percentage points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters.
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