Indiana, North Dakota may go Republican while Arizona flips Democrat.
The latest Fox News polls show that Republicans have an opportunity to flip two Senate seats while holding onto another. However, Democrats have a chance to take over Arizona Republican Jeff Flake’s seat and Missouri Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill captured a lead from her opponent.
Tread with caution, though, because all of them have slim leads in these polls.
These polls just go to show the tightness of the midterms in November, especially since the Republicans only have a one-seat advantage.
Indiana, North Dakota, Tennessee
President Donald Trump won both of these states in 2016. Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly from Indiana won his last election by 49.9% while Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota won by 50.5%
The Fox News poll has Donnelly’s opponent Mike Braun ahead by 45-43 percent. Only 8% of the people remain undecided and Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton sits at 3%.
Trump remains popular in Indiana as 54% of the respondents approve of the president and most of them claim they are better off now than they were two years ago.
Donnelly faces another hit as the poll revealed that Braun won “among women by five points and voters over age 45 by 10 points.” From Fox News:
“In an electorate that is likely to be nearly 90 percent white and majority female, a Democrat has almost no path to victory without at least drawing even among white women,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News poll with Republican Daron Shaw.
“This is a Republican state and this seat is one of the most difficult that the Democrats are defending,” adds Shaw. “Donnelly is even with suburban whites and manages to get 12 percent of Hoosiers who voted for Trump, yet he’s still down in the race right now.”
Donnelly may save himself if he votes to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Heitkamp’s challenger Kevin Cramer leads 48 to 44 with only 8% undecided. Like Indiana, the majority of those who responded approve of Trump.
North Dakota is a red state and Heitkamp’s victory in 2012 “has been the Democrats’ only statewide victory in the Peace Garden State in the last eight years.”
The incumbent hasn’t shied away from the political leanings of her state. In an ad released in June, Heitkamp explained why she has “voted over half the time with President Trump.” She said:
“When I ran for the Senate six years ago, I said I wouldn’t vote the party line, because I don’t think either party has all the answers,” she says in the new ad. “That’s why I voted over half the time with President Trump. And that made a lot of people in Washington mad, but when I agree with him, I vote with him.”
Heitkamp could also save herself if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh since “[O]ne in three voters who say they could change their mind before November say they would be less likely to vote for Heitkamp if she opposes Kavanaugh, while 21 percent would be more likely.
A poll for Tennessee looks like the Republicans will keep retiring Bob Corker’s seat. Rep. Marsha Blackburn has a 47-44 lead over former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen and only 8% of the voters remain undecided. Trump also has a high approval rating in the state at 58%.
Arizona and Missouri
Two women are competing for retiring Republican Jeff Flake, Republican Rep. Martha McSally and Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.
Sinema leads McSally by 47 to 44 and 8% remain undecided. She has a 15 point lead when it comes to women and ahead among those under 45 and non-whites. Fox News continued:
Sinema is better liked than McSally. She’s viewed more positively than negatively by 17 points (52 percent favorable vs. 35 percent unfavorable), while McSally’s net favorability rating is +4 (47-43 percent).
Interest and certainty are also on the Democrat’s side: 77 percent of Sinema’s backers feel sure they will vote for her and 48 percent are extremely interested in the election. For McSally, 70 percent are certain and 43 percent are extremely interested.
Overall, about one quarter of voters (24 percent) say they could change their mind before voting.
Sinema has also stolen 12% Republicans from McSally.
Trump won the state, but the poll showed that 49% approve of him and disapprove.
The Missouri race is crazy because one day I see Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill ahead and the next her opponent Attorney General Josh Hawley ahead in polls.
The Fox News poll has McCaskill ahead 44 to 41. Yet, 6% of the people said they want another candidate and 8% remain undecided. McCaskill has a lead among women, but both are tied with white women.
Fox News reported:
McCaskill gets stronger support among Democrats, 90 percent, than Hawley captures among Republicans (79 percent). Missouri voters are more likely to identify as Republican than Democrat by seven points.
“Assuming partisans come home by Election Day, as is typical, Hawley will benefit,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News poll with Republican counterpart Daron Shaw.
“But if Republicans splinter to independent and Libertarian candidates as they are showing signs of now, that could be the difference in the race.”
Seventy-nine percent of McCaskill’s backers are certain they will vote for her — far more than the 68 percent of Hawley’s supporters who are sure.
The race could change. Eight percent of Missouri likely voters are undecided. Plus, 27 percent of those currently backing a candidate say they could change their mind before November.
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