Cook Political Report Changes Three Senate Races, Including Texas
Democrats may keep their seats in Montana and West Virginia
The Cook Political Report changed its ratings in three Senate races, including Texas. The map still tends to favor the GOP keeping its majority, but it’s looking like incumbent Democrats Joe Tester from Montana and Joe Manchin from West Virginia will keep their seats.
However, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz from Texas is in slight trouble as his race now has the label Toss-Up.
Texas is a red state, which makes the change to Toss-Up a confusing one. Poll after poll changes. One minute Cruz has the lead and the next his Democrat opponent Robert O’Rourke grabs it. From The Cook Political Report:
GOP U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz isn’t terribly popular, and while that might not necessarily be a problem is a red state, Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and his message have generated a great deal of enthusiasm among Democrats and independents, as well as Democratic donors across the country who have filled his campaign war chest. At this point, he has outraised Cruz and outspent him on television. A Toss Up rating makes both parties nervous: Republicans for obvious reasons and Democrats because it creates an expectation that they will start spending money on the race. For that matter, Republicans aren’t anxious to spend money in such an expensive state either. The Club for Growth is investing in the race on Cruz’s behalf, but O’Rourke has campaigned against PAC money and outside spending so having the party swoop in with millions in television advertising might well be counterproductive. O’Rourke has earned this rating, but getting the last couple of points to overtake Cruz and win the seat will be difficult though not utterly impossible.
A Quinnipiac University poll from September 18 had Cruz over O’Rourke 54 to 45. 1% of those who responded remain undecided.
Then a day later, a poll from Ispos, Reuters, and the University of Virginia had O’Rourke ahead, 47 to 45. Only 3% said other and 5% said none. From Texas Tribune:
Ipsos is trying to gauge political enthusiasm on each side, said Jackson. The poll asked respondents to estimate the likelihood that they’d vote in the midterm elections on a scale from one to 10. “More Democrats are registering at the highest part of the scale, at the 10, than the Republicans,” Jackson said. And that’s what’s interesting, he said, because Republicans usually have the momentum advantage in Texas.
“It demonstrates how Democrats are mobilized,” said Jackson. “This election is going to be really competitive and its going be very hard fought.”
Healthcare and immigration were the issues that Texas voters valued most, according to the poll, but it’s “very lopsided,” Jackson said. Republican respondents cared most about immigration and Democrats cared most about healthcare with very little overlap.
I said back in July that Montana intrigues me because of the electoral swings in the state. President Donald Trump won the state by 20 points in November 2016, but the state also elected a Democrat governor that month. From The Cook Political Report:
Tester is running a very strong campaign that highlights his accomplishments in the Senate on behalf of Montana voters. He stresses the pieces of legislation he has sponsored that President Trump has signed into law, as well as his Montana-centric independence. Republican state Auditor Matt Rosendale appears to be holding his own, despite a constant barrage of attacks from Democrats who have defined him as a heartless real estate developer from Maryland who owns a “trophy ranch.” While Trump is a big asset to Rosendale, the presence of a Libertarian candidate on the ballot may well prevent him from overtaking Tester; Libertarian candidates often cost Republicans elections here.
Recent polls show the men in a dead heat. A CBS News poll from last week has Tester up 47 to 45. RealClearPolitics has Tester with a 4.3% lead, but you have to remember that he had an 8 point lead in June.
Manchin entered the race as the most vulnerable incumbent. The Cook Political Report had his race as a Toss Up the whole time, but that has changed to Lean Democrat:
Having served two terms as Governor, voters know Manchin and Republicans have had trouble selling the message that Washington has changed him. It has helped that GOP state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey isn’t the strongest candidate that the party could have nominated. Democrats have successfully tagged him as a former lobbyist from New Jersey who is beholden to the pharmaceutical industry. Some Republican strategists maintain that there is still a path to victory for Morrisey, but it is narrow. For now, Manchin’s lead appears to be in the high single digits. If the race closes, it will move back to Toss Up.
The latest polls have Manchin in a semi-comfortable lead. Research America found Manchin up by 8 points over Morrisey earlier this month. A MetroNews Dominion West Virginia Poll at the end of August came to the same conclusion:
The poll that was released Friday showed Manchin, the Democrat who has served in the Senate since 2010, with a 46 percent to 38 percent edge on the Republican Morrisey.
Another 16 percent of likely voters said they still aren’t sure.
“Morrisey is behind by about 8 percentage points, but if you look at the voters most interested in the election, that lead shrinks,” said pollster Rex Repass, who constructed the questions for the West Virginia Poll. “Morrisey could have more of an advantage in the intensity factor or the enthusiasm factor.”
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Gallup poll released today should strike fear, due to the trendlines, of Obama Dims:
Republican Party Favorability Highest in Seven Years
Republican favorability at 45%, Democrats at 44%
Democrats generally have had the upper hand in favorability ratings
Major gains for Republican Party within the party, including leaners
Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating. [snip]
Two other major subgroups that tend to be more Republican than the overall population — men and those living in middle-income households — have become more likely to view the Republican Party favorably in the past year. [snip]
For the Republican Party, less than two months away from an election that could see them lose control of both the House and the Senate, gains in public favorability are a welcome sign. The party has been wallowing in favorable ratings below 40% for most of the last five years after rarely sinking that low in the previous two decades.
No matter how much or how little party favorability affects elections, the fact that Republicans are more likely to view their party favorably than a year ago can be considered a positive indicator for the party, particularly if a more positive image boosts Republican turnout.
Although Republicans’ approval of a Congress controlled by their party remains low, Republicans apparently hold similarly positive perceptions of their party as they do of President Trump (81% favorable in this same poll).
This poll taken in the midst of an unprecedented lunatic series of attacks against President Trump and the GOP demonstrates that the Blue Wave supposition will not materialize. Thus far President Trump has been getting hit. Now President Trump, just before the elections, is up at bat.
Check the latest from Gallup?
It’s ALL bad news for the D’s.
Cook is a known liberal. His predictions always skew left this early, corrects a little just prior to Election Day so post election analysis show him in the ballpark.
And, the MSM bias gets worse every year as more and more on the Right just absolutely refuse to talk to them (even when they aren’t cooking a push poll they still haven’t figured how to compensate for this). The media HATES us and we know it. Get a call from a pollster and you hear “NBC” or “CNN” and what do you do? Click!!
Gallup, and read through all the details, and compares to Gallup’s same poll with same methodology one year ago. Pretty shocking improvement.
Cook had Hillary winning bigly until a couple of weeks before Election Day 2016 and then only as a possibility that Donald Trump would win; PROBABLY STILL BELIEVES HIS POLLS FROM OCTOBER 2016. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/jasonhopkins/2016/11/06/election-guru-charlie-cook-retracts-previous-assessment-says-trump-now-has-a-path-to-victory-n2242027
This is the obedient Media and their Pollsters trying to convince us to not waste our time to vote.
JUST DO YOUR JOB AND SHOW UP AT THE BALLOT BOX TO VOTE EVERY DEMONCRAT OUT OF OFFICE THIS NOVEMBER. ALL WE NEED TO SEE IS THE DESPICABLE AND DETESTABLE MANNER IN WHICH THE DEMONCRATS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DAMAGE JUDGE KAVENAUGH TO SEE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THEY TAKE OVER THE SENATE AND HOUSE. AND IF THAT STILL ISN’T ENOUGH, THEN HERE ARE FOUR MORE REASONS:
Speaker of the House: Dementia afflicted Nancy Pelosi
Chairman of the Finance Committee: “Mad Maxine” Waters
Chairman of the Intelligence Committee: Adam Schiff[head]
Chairman of Oversight and Government Reform: Elijah “Milk Dud” Cummings
Mary I will be back here to shove the bogus Democrat Cook Report right up where the sun doesn’t shine when it is all over. I get tired of your stupid articles based on Cook who NEVER gets it right and ALWYS predicts Democrat victory EVEN in 2010 and 2014 and don’t forget 2016.
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