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    Should Ted Cuz be Worried About New Polling Showing the Race a Dead Heat?

    Should Ted Cuz be Worried About New Polling Showing the Race a Dead Heat?

    Yes, but not for the reasons the media is talking about

    A new poll conducted by Emerson shows the Texas Senate race in a dead heat, which Cruz leading by one tiny little point. That said, the poll only had a sample size was small, as only 550 registered voters were surveyed, making it the second smallest sampling of the election season.

    The only poll with a smaller sample size (of 441 likely voters) showed Cruz up by only two points.

    In the 2016 election, Emerson also had Clinton winning by a landslide, so there’s that.

    Anyway, despite the flat numbers showing candidate preference, Emerson published age breakdown of candidate preference, but not ethnicity, which in a state as diverse as Texas is just a little bit odd.

    Even so, according to Emerson’s survey, a whopping 21% of respondents are still undecided.

    Where Cruz should be concerned, is overall favorability, which is significantly lower than other Republican Texans, like Governor Abbott, a statistic consistent across numerous polls this election cycle. His failed presidential bid and the fact that he ran for president just four years into his first term in office soured many a previous supporter.

    There is a stark difference in voter perception between the two Republican candidates running for re-election. Abbott has a 47% favorable and 33% unfavorable with 18% neutral and 2% never heard of him, Cruz has a 38% favorable and 44% unfavorable with 18% neutral and less than 1% have never heard of him.

    The disparities in popularity and in the two elections appear to be driven by Independent voters. Ted Cruz has a 57% unfavorable rating among independents and a 25% favorable rating, conversely, Abbott, the other Republicans has a 41% unfavorable and 37% favorable rating among independents. These numbers play out in the ballot test where O’Rourke leads Cruz 45% to 25% among independents..

    I still don’t see Cruz losing this time around. He still carries an average of a 5.5 point lead over O’Rourke, and studies have shown that Republican voters are consistently underrepresented in polling for Texas elections.

    I still maintain O’Rourke’s goal this go-round was not winning but laying the groundwork for 2024. I doubt his campaign or Cruz’s thought the race would be this close. With the influx of blue state refugees and Texas’ changing demographics, Cruz will likely get through this time but should be prepping for a knockdown, drag-out fight come 2024.


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    The fact that they don’t list ethnicity is the tell for how they (mis)weighted this poll.

    Cruz will win by 7 or 8 but the fact that it will be that “close” should tell Texans they have to get that wall built-on its border with CA.
    Cruz wins, Ginsburg dies, Trump appoints Cruz to the Supreme Court, left commits suicide. What’s not to like!!!

    theduchessofkitty | August 29, 2018 at 8:57 am

    I live in TX. I hold nothing against Ted. He was doing everything he could on the ground during Harvey. Everyone saw him there.

    I’m voting for him, and so is my husband.

    Besides, Texans love their freedoms, their guns, their churches and the USA. They don’t love illegals, open borders, or anyone who threatens their life and their freedoms. Calling for “decriminalizing border crossings” as Beto has done only calls for anarchy and the end of Texas as we know it.

    Not to mention that Beto is insinuating he’s the real “Hispanic”… going against a real one. Go figure.

    If we want to be sure about this one, we better call upon President Trump to show up over there and endorse him, in full public view. That’s the only way.

    94Corvette | August 29, 2018 at 8:57 am

    Ted Cruz’s non-endorsement of President Trump at the 2016 Convention really soured me. Unfortunately, here in Texas we have two Senators who are not supportive of our Administration.

      healthguyfsu in reply to 94Corvette. | August 29, 2018 at 9:30 am

      If that soured you, what does Beta do to you?

      Close The Fed in reply to 94Corvette. | August 29, 2018 at 9:57 am

      As much as we need Trump, and I did support him very early – when he tricked the media into covering the families of those killed by illegal aliens — Trump has made a couple of errors.

      McCain wasn’t running against him and his insult of McCain cost us kenyan care repeal.

      And I know he was running against Cruz, but he should have been more temperate and not criticized Cruz’s wife and father. Unsure he did criticize his father.. maybe someone else did.

      Regardless, with respect to these two men, he hurt himself and us in the process. I don’t blame Cruz; Trump went too far on the Heidi Cruz thing. Not saying he should be or should have been politically correct; just unwise to appreciate that Cruz is human and his wife is human, and you insult too far and that will bite you. Cruz is in the senate and he didn’t think carefully enough that you need allies in the senate.

      That Cruz didn’t endorse Trump doesn’t bother me one bit. I understand. Don’t agree – but I understand.

      aka Hoss in reply to 94Corvette. | August 29, 2018 at 10:18 am

      Get over it, I was a supporter of Cruz over Trump and I got called everything from a cuck to a fake, and I got over it to support Trump.

      txvet2 in reply to 94Corvette. | August 29, 2018 at 12:10 pm

      You Trumpbots better get over it and get out for Cruz. If he loses in 2018, Trump gets bumped in 2020. I would suggest that if you’re going to obsess over 2016, that you remember that Trump (and his pal at NE) is the one who slandered Cruz, not the other way around – but Cruz still has been one of his leading supporters in the Senate.

      “”Unfortunately, here in Texas we have two Senators who are not supportive of our Administration.””

      That’s a flat lie.

        Paul in reply to txvet2. | August 29, 2018 at 1:37 pm

        What Trump deserved was a good old fashioned Texas ass-beating for the way he lied about Ted and his family. Instead he got a mild brush-off at the convention and then nothing but support in the Senate. The Trumpaloos need to pull their bunched-up panties out of their cracks and get on with things, most of the rest of us have.

    TYPO ALERT: Should Ted Cuz be Worried About New Polling Showing the Race a Dead Heat?

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