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    Pre-Final Presidential Debate – state of the race

    Pre-Final Presidential Debate – state of the race

    Polling averages are brutal for Trump, but is there a glimmer of hope far off in the distance?

    As we approach the final presidential debate later tonight, the polling looks grim for Donald Trump.

    In a sense, Trump never really recovered from his post Democratic convention fall, when his public feud with the Khan family wasted what had been a Trump rally after the Republican convention.

    There was a rebound for a couple of weeks, as Trump maintained uncharacteristic composure and relative silence as Hillary’s email and other scandals took a toll.

    But all of that went down the tubes as Trump took the bait on the “fat shaming” allegation after the first debate. Does ANYONE even remember the woman’s name at this point? She was just a Clinton prop used to set up what was to come, the NBC tape of comments about groping women and the rollout of a series of women accusing Trump of groping them in some form or another.

    Now, Hillary has pulled into a consistent lead in the mid-to-high single digits in remarkably consistent polling (with an exception, discussed below).

    Here are the Real Clear Politics averages and most recent polls.

    real-clear-politics-presidential-averages-10-18-2016

    real-clear-politics-presidential-averages-10-18-2016-latest-polls-4-way

    With no toss-ups, based on current polling Hillary easily wins the electoral college:

    real-clear-politics-electoral-map-10-19-2016-no-toss-ups

    The glimmer of hope for Trump in the far distance is the IBD/TIPP poll, the only recent poll to show Trump leading. You could write that off as an anomaly, but, that poll was the most accurate in 2012.

    So the hope for Trump is that the average polling is way, way, way off. That meme was pushed in 2012 to no effect.

    Trump also needs to hope that something changes between now and November 8 that changes the nature of the race.

    More Wikileaks disclosures proving that the Clinton machine has corrupted the media, DOJ, FBI and just about every other thing it touches will not be enough.

    It will have to be something more than that. Because you can expect more October surprises to be dropped on Trump — probably one every few days.

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    Comments



     
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    OnlyRightDissentAllowed | October 19, 2016 at 8:02 pm

    You guys really ought to read fivethirtyeight.com. They discuss every issue raised here and many, many more. They even discuss the possibility that some Trump supporters lie to pollsters. They are pros at this. Literally.

    538 only got one state wrong in the last 2 Presidential Elections. They got some primaries wrong, but not the generals elections.

    I would think you would be more realistic after the ‘unskewed polls’ fiasco. But foolish hope never dies.

    You could take comfort in the betting markets. Trump was 5-1 but now he is 4-1. So they have move his way a bit.

    John Stossel’s site has Hillary @ 82.3%. He is no liberal and he bases his predictions on the betting sites.

      Yeah yeah. So why has Silver totally screwed up the midterm elections two times?


         
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        OnlyRightDissentAllowed in reply to RodFC. | October 19, 2016 at 8:43 pm

        1st of all, he got the Presidential forecasts dead on. 2nd, I don’t care. Unlike a lot of other mythology on this site, we will have an answer Nov 8. At that time, you can accept it or not. I have no control over that.

        But please, does anyone really believe Trump has the temperament to be President. I mean, really? Just between us guys – I won’t tell anyone.

        Anyway, I am done for the night. You guys can fantasize about how the polls and betting markets are all wrong and – Every once in awhile there is an upset. That is why we hold the elections or the sporting events. But Trump in a long shot. He always was. According to WikiLeaks Clinton wanted Trump.

        Goodnight.

          Nate Silver has been right when Democrats won. He has been wrong when Republicans won. Why? He leans heavily Democrat. Surprise.

          So not hanging around? Guess Hiillary’s check didn’t clear.

          “just between us guys” and “you guys”? You didn’t give me a trigger warning,didn’t you realize that “guys” is not acceptable, I am so upset, you sexist 😉

          First of all, if Trump wins, will you accept it?

          Second, if Hillary wins, there will be no media watchdog over her – only more glowing reports of how great she is, as well as hiding all the illegal things she and her crew are doing. If Trump wins, everyone in the media as well as Congress will be fact checking every word he says, waiting to trip him up.While I may not like Trump, I will like the media eye on him, if he is elected.

          Yes. I believe that Mr. Trump does have the temperament to be President of the United States.

          If we can tolerate:
          – President Stompy-feet (President Obama, known for his tantrums);
          – President can’t keep it in his pants (President William Clinton, known for not being able to keep it in his pants);
          – President Malaise (President Carter, known for the worst modern economic period until Obama); and
          – President King of Camelot (President Kennedy, known for his trysts in the White House with many, many celebrity women)

          We can tolerate President Business Narcissist.

      Yes, yes, we read 538. It correctly predicted Obama elections based on the turnout. The turnout model didn’t work for the midterms. This year? I’m not a statistician, but a blind can see that Trump’s support is deep but narrow. Supposedly, Hillary closed the enthusiasm gap after the Billy Bush tape came out.
      There are wide discrepancies in the polling, way wider than I remember 2008 and 2012. There is no doubt in my mind that Hillary will win, though.

    Care to show the RCP average of the Demographics.
    RCP was first created because of ( whispered ) fears of manipulation of polls. At that time Zogby was relatively accurate.

    But at this point GIGO. You obviously have a serious Gell-Mann amnesia regarding Wikileaks and the “revelations” that the polls and press are in bed with Illary.

    Since the beginning I’ve said the polls are an unknown. They might be spot on, they might be widely off.

    There is an even more complicated thing. They have been talking about the effect on polls of people going without landlines. Guess what I don’t hear? The effect of ANI on polls. I don’t answer any call from any person that I don’t know. For all I know I’ve been contacted by pollsters many times. They just haven’t left any messages.

    Finally I think about previous examples in my experience where polls were wrong. The biggest common factor that I could find in those polls, the side underestimated had strong reason to lie to pollsters.
    Usually fear or embarrassment of admitting their choice.

    Burned out campaign headquarters. Rocks thrown through headquarters. Trump supporters attacked at Trump rallies. UIC… you think a Trump supporter is going to admit to a stranger he is a Trump supporter?

    Misogynist, racist, the next Hitler. You think any Trump supporter is going to admit that to a stranger?


       
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      RodFC in reply to RodFC. | October 19, 2016 at 8:38 pm

      This just came in.
      I don’t know what exactly the #3 veritas video is about. WHen IO checked it wasn’t out yet and I thought that he wasn’t going to release one today. It is described as the DNC sending protestors to get violent with women at Trump rallies.

      Any belief that a woman is going to be h0onest with a stranger about who she is voting for? So much for one of Illary”s main demographic.


         
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        OnlyRightDissentAllowed in reply to RodFC. | October 19, 2016 at 8:47 pm

        Ever occur to you that veritas sent the violent demonstrators or did some other manipulation. He is the Boy who Cried Wolf. Even Breitbart disowned him and that is where he got started.

    I think Prof. Jacobson pinpointed his slide exactly, although I might say it was right after he sent out the 5am “check out her sex tape” tweet that it all really fell apart. I don’t see the debate changing anything – people’s minds are already made up about Trump one way or another, and most won’t feel the need to watch. It’s too bad other Republican candidates weren’t capable of doing the same opposition research that the Democrats were able to do.


     
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    DieJustAsHappy | October 19, 2016 at 8:46 pm

    The majority of people I know are so disgusted with this election they’ve given up on any discussions. They know they’re voting for Trump, so don’t believe they need to listen to the hash n’ trash being doled about by the media.

    That Hillary continues to have the support that she does at this stage of the game suggests to me just how far gone this nation is. I don’t know that I’ve heard or even heard of anybody of a clear vision, a doable one, for the future of America.


     
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    Henry Hawkins | October 19, 2016 at 9:10 pm

    I’ve heard promises for a year that when Trump gets Hillary on the debate stage, he’s gonna tear her apart. Does that start tonight?


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