Most Read
    Image 01 Image 02 Image 03

    Polls Paint Increasingly Dire Picture for Trump

    Polls Paint Increasingly Dire Picture for Trump

    August has not been a good month as his post-RNC bounce dissipates

    Electoral success is looking bleak for Republican nominee Donald Trump and his supporters.

    Among the conventional poll-reading wisdom is that trends, not individual polls, provide for a more accurate overview.

    Despite his headline popularity and ability to pull around 30% in primary elections, Trump has never polled consistently well against Democratic contender Hillary Clinton.

    In fact, the only time Trump was able to muster any substantial polling gain against Hillary was following the Republican National Convention, but the post-convention bump was short-lived.

    From Real Clear Politics:

    donald trump polling against hillary clinton trends data lose win 2016 post-convention bump

    August has been a rough polling month for The Donald. Not once has a national poll shown him with a lead over Hillary.

    donald trump hillary clinton polling august 2016 trends bad news

    Earlier this month, a Fox News poll showed Hillary up by ten points and Reuters poll had her up by eight. As I blogged then, “this is the problem with having a campaign predicated on the fact that you’re leading in all the polls — when polling data turns unfavorable, your alleged mandate dissipates.”

    Today, a new batch of polls showed the same downward trend for Trump.

    • NBC News poll has Hillary up by 9
    • In the deep red Lone Star State, Trump is only up by…6? SIX?!
    • Hillary is also up 9 in the no longer swinging state of Florida
    • Making it no surprise that Trump is down by, wait for it…9 in Virginia too.

    “But the polls are rigged!!!” Yeah, yeah. In the 2012 election they were “rigged” in favor of Romney, only for election day to prove otherwise.

    Trump’s hope lies in the Brexit mystery — where polling respondents were unwilling to vocalize support of the referendum prior to election day. Even then he’d have to overcome a 28% unfavorability deficit.

    As I’ve blogged before:

    You can blame voters for not supporting a candidate all you like, but as I’ve said many times — no one is ever entitled to any other’s vote; votes must be earned. The failure to garner voter support is not the fault of the electorate; it’s the fault of the candidate and their campaign to find a message that resonates with voters, grow support, and ensure that support translates into votes at the ballot box.

    Follow Kemberlee on Twitter @kemberleekaye


    Donations tax deductible
    to the full extent allowed by law.


    Wisewerds | August 17, 2016 at 11:20 am

    Boy am I getting tired of Rags! Anal to the end!

    I agree. Polls Paint.
    Now, I am unaware of any polls which are purported to be intellectually honest.
    And, as they say, there is only one poll that counts.

    Of course, that one has it’s own problems:
    Votes don’t count.
    It is the Counters that do that.

    heyjoojoo | August 19, 2016 at 11:49 pm

    I have moved past the loss of Ted Cruz. I am not a Trump hating, Cruz temper tantrum-throwing boob.

    Trump has got this. Notice the polls fluctuate. I have been surprised before by polls. We see evidence of this all the time. I feel a Trump landslide coming. I hear from blacks like never before. Something has already pivoted in the Republican party. New faces are coming to the R Party.

    Leave a Comment

    Leave a Reply

    You must be logged in to post a comment.

    Notify me of followup comments via e-mail (or subscribe without commenting.)

    Font Resize
    Contrast Mode
    Send this to a friend