Last night is being hyped as a Yuuuge comeback for Trump. Actually, not much changed other than the media narrative:
Last night’s primary and caucus results changed the momentum in both presidential races. But they didn’t significantly alter the overall math and trajectory of the two contests. Let’s start with the Republican race. Donald Trump headed into last night losing some steam after Ted Cruz’s gains over the weekend. And what did Trump do? He won the Michigan and Mississippi primaries by double digits over Cruz, and he even triumphed in Hawaii’s caucuses. (Trump’s one loss came in Idaho, where Cruz beat him, 45%-28%.) Still, the results don’t truly change the overall math for Trump: He still needs to win Florida and/or Ohio to be on a stronger path to the 1,237 delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination. The good news for him: His top competition in Florida (Marco Rubio) and Ohio (John Kasich) certainly don’t have the political winds at their backs. Here’s the GOP delegate math:
Trump currently has a 93-delegate lead over Cruz
Trump 456 (44% of all delegates awarded)
Cruz 363 (35%)
Rubio 153 (15%)
Kasich 54 (5%)
What matters more is what happens in winner-takes-all Florida and Ohio next week. Trump is up in polling in both places, by a wide margin over Rubio in Florida, and by a not-so-wide margin over Kasich in Ohio.
(added) Though it looks like the race could go on a lot longer than most people think even if Trump wins both Florida and Ohio:
Assuming Trump wins OH, FL, & 50% of all other delegates thru 3/15, he'd need 72% of delegates to win nom b4 June 7 https://t.co/21XkC9jnQb
— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) March 9, 2016
Carly Fiorina entered the fray today, endorsing Cruz:
Last Tuesday, Virginia had a primary—and even though my own name was on the ballot, I checked the box for Ted Cruz.
When Republicans lost the last Presidential election, the Republican establishment thought it knew just what to do. Pass comprehensive immigration reform. Stop talking about “social issues.” Go along and get along. Don’t rock the boat. Rather than fight for real change, stand by as government grows increasingly incompetent and corrupt.
But they didn’t count on Ted Cruz.
Ted Cruz is a true constitutional conservative. A real reformer, and a strong leader. And he can and will unite our party, and fix the festering problems in Washington—whether it’s our broken immigration system or the IRS. Ted Cruz is that conservative.
And here’s something I’ve learned throughout my career: if you are a real leader, you absolutely must challenge the status quo. And when you challenge the status quo, you make enemies. It’s the price of leadership. And that price is one too many people aren’t willing to pay, and so they don’t lead.
Ted Cruz has made enemies by taking on the political class. They’re scared we found our guy.
I ran for President because I believe it is time to take our country back—and I still believe that. I still believe we need a candidate who will stand for conservative principles. A nominee who will never settle for the status quo, and who will unite us as Republicans.
It is time for us to unite behind Ted Cruz.
If you’re ready to take our country back—if you’re ready to elect a real constitutional conservative in November—join me now in supporting the next President of these United States, Ted Cruz.
Not sure Fiorina’s endorsement carries with it a lot of voters, but it does help the media narrative of the anti-Trump electorate coalescing around Cruz. Whether it’s too little too late remains to be seen.
Against this Trumpmentum is polling from two separate major polling organizations showing Hillary crushing Trump:
NBC/WSJ poll GOP vs. Hillary:
Cruz trails narrowly (-2)
…Trump losing by 13 points. https://t.co/y7s50uhUi6
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) March 9, 2016
WaPo/ABC poll: Hillary leads Trump by 18 points among adults, she's up 9 w/ registered voters. https://t.co/MT0zDfUUyM
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) March 9, 2016
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