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    The All-Important Legal Insurrection TRUMP VERSUS CRUZ Poll

    The All-Important Legal Insurrection TRUMP VERSUS CRUZ Poll

    Recent polls indicate it may come down to this

    Last week,  Quinnipiac reported poll results for Iowa that showed Ted Cruz surging to 23%, only 2 points behind Donald Trump.

    The Wall Street Journal reported:

    A new Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican caucus goers showed Mr. Cruz with 23%, behind only New York real estate developer Donald Trump, with 25%. That is more than double Mr. Cruz’s showing of 10% in the university’s October poll. Mr. Trump gained five points from October.

    Today, Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review, tweeted the following:

    More Twitter responses:

    I feel another LI reader poll coming on . . . .

    The poll is open until Noon on Monday (Pacific Time).

    [Featured image via Rick Tyler]


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    Wow- I amazed this is not more one sided.

    Keep in mind, a lot of Democrats will be voting Trump as well in the primary.

    So states like Wa, Oregon and California will be going for Trump even though they will be Hillary in the general.

    That sort of annoys me.

    Is that a sad trombone I hear coming from Trumpeteer HQ?

    MikadoCat | December 7, 2015 at 4:41 pm

    Make the polls small enough, or targeted to a certain demographic and you can pretend anybody is winning.

    Three to four times a week Trump draws crowds of 10,000 or more people, and those people aren’t just going to vote for Trump, those are energized people who go out and change minds.

    No Amy, it is the sound of the air coming out of Rich Lowry’s big lie balloon:

    a new CNN/ORC Poll finds TRUMP LEADS CRUZ 33% TO 20% IN IOWA.

    Overall, Trump has 33% support among likely GOP caucusgoers, followed by Cruz at 20% with Carson at 16%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4%. The new poll shows Trump up 8 points, Cruz up 9, while Carson has faded by 7 points, compared with the last CNN/ORC poll, conducted in late October and early November.

    The poll finds a markedly different landscape among potential GOP caucusgoers than another Iowa poll released Monday by Monmouth University. The difference between the two seems to stem primarily from sampling.

    READ: The complete CNN/ORC poll results

    The Monmouth poll interviewed a sample drawn from registered voter lists that primarily comprised those who had voted in state-level Republican primary elections in previous election years. Among those voters, Monmouth found Cruz and Rubio ahead of Trump and Carson. Among voters who were not regular GOP primary voters, however, the poll found Trump ahead, similar to the CNN/ORC poll’s finding.

    The CNN/ORC Poll drew its sample from Iowa adults, asking those reached about their intention to participate in their caucus, interest in news about the caucuses, and past participation patterns to determine who would be a likely voter.

    But still, Trump’s lead holds even among only those voters who express the most interest in attending the caucus or the most regular past participation in presidential caucuses. Among those in the CNN/ORC poll who say they definitely plan to attend the caucuses and are more interested in news about them than any other news story — a group which represents approximately 8% of Iowa adults — Trump’s lead grows to a 42% to 23% advantage over Cruz, with Rubio at 11% and Carson at 9%.

    And among those who say they have participated in almost all of the caucuses for which they have been eligible — about 10% of Iowa adults — Trump leads 38% to 21% for Cruz, with Carson at 12% and Rubio at 11%.

    One group that remains a challenge for Trump and which makes up a large share of Iowa’s usual set of Republican caucusgoers is white evangelicals. Among that group, 26% back Cruz, 24% Trump, 20% Carson and 12% Rubio. In last month’s poll, Trump trailed Carson 31% to 20% among white evangelicals, with Cruz at 15% and Rubio at 11%.

    Trump is increasingly seen by likely GOP caucusgoers as the Republican with the best chance to win the 2016 general election: 42% say Trump has the best shot, followed by 17% for Cruz and 11% each for Carson and Rubio. Last month, 33% thought Trump had the best chance to win followed by Carson at 25% and Rubio at 17%. Cruz is up 9 points on this question.

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