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    New Polls Have Carson Surging While Trump Falls

    New Polls Have Carson Surging While Trump Falls

    Outlier or trend?

    A poll released by Investor’s Business Daily Friday shows Dr. Ben Carson sailing past Donald Trump. While Trump’s numbers are steadily declining, he remains one of three contenders pulling in doubly digits in IBD’s poll, the third being Senator Rubio.

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    IBD writes:

    The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump.

    Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided.

    The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.

    “Have we reached Peak Trump?” IBD asked. Fiorina continues to hover around 10% with Rubio right at her heels, and while Trump and Carson continue vying for the top spot, the last few weeks indicate Carson’s popularity continues to grow, steadily whittling away at Trump’s.

    Real Clear Policy’s polling averages support IBD’s claims:

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    IBD explains:

    Other polls show Trump’s support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.

    “Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD’s monthly poll. “In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump’s boycott of Fox News may have set him back,” Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump’s self-imposed hiatus.

    When asked on CNBC about his slipping poll numbers, Trump said that “if I fell behind badly, I would certainly get out.”

    Carson’s gain comes after his controversial remarks on “Meet the Press” that he couldn’t support a Muslim for president.

    Rubio’s third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won that debate, has been unable to capitalize on it with Republicans.

    A new NBC poll shows similar trends:

    Carson gained national attention late last week with a “I am a Christian” declaration following the horrific Oregon Community College shooting where reportedly, the shooter targeted Christians.

    The next Republican presidential debate is scheduled for October 28.

    Follow Kemberlee on Twitter @kemberleekaye

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    Comments



     
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    Valerie | October 4, 2015 at 1:58 pm

    Much as I like Carson, it’s too early for the polls to have much meaning, for me. Nobody has even voted in a primary, yet.

    I really like the idea of Carson for President, because I think a person of his character and wisdom would be excellent in office.

    I don’t think any polls at this point in the 2007-2008 or 2011-2012 GOP primary cycle ended up with the person who’d actually end up winning the primary on top.

    On this date in the 2008 cycle, Guiliani was still on top at 28% with Fred Thompson right behind on 21%. McCain wasn’t leading in any of the polls till January.

    On this date in the 2012 cycle, it was still Perry, Romney then Cain (which switched to Gingrich, Romney and Paul by December; Santorum, Romney and Gingrich by February; with Romney not becoming the clear front-runner till March).

    There’s still a long ways to go.


     
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    Henry Hawkins | October 4, 2015 at 7:46 pm

    The polls are meaningless until about May.


     
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    57nomad | October 4, 2015 at 8:48 pm

    The headline should have read new “poll” not “polls”. On the same day Reuters had Trump at 34%. One of them is an outlier.


     
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    Juba Doobai! | October 4, 2015 at 10:15 pm

    Trump, as Rush pointed out last Friday, erred in saying that if he went down in the polls he would quit. Well, the pollsters have taken him at face value and presenting poll results to ensure he quits.


       
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      Radegunda in reply to Juba Doobai!. | October 4, 2015 at 10:56 pm

      You’re assuming that Trump always does what he says he’ll do. Never mind that sometimes he makes contradictory statements what he’ll do.


         
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        Henry Hawkins in reply to Radegunda. | October 5, 2015 at 4:55 pm

        Having changed his party registration four times since 1999, Trump might not even be a Republican by the time the primaries start. Sometimes the wind changes direction, and if anything is made clear by four party changes in sixteen years, it is that Trump minds wind direction and adjusts accordingly.

        I’m a Republican! Nope, I’m a Democrat! Nope, I’m an Independent! Nope, I’m a Republican again! He also ran for the nomination in the Reform Party, so you could call it five changes in sixteen years.

        Why do people think Trump will stick with what he’s currently saying when he changes principles, policies, and party affiliations like a teenager changes clothes?


           
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          forksdad in reply to Henry Hawkins. | October 5, 2015 at 6:31 pm

          Both primary systems are rigged against party outsiders but it is possible to stay in for a man like Trump. He has to know that he would never get elected as a Dem. They despise big business unless it is crony capitalism. They are explicitly, pro criminal and pro leach. They absolutely need illegal immigrants.

          The Rep base knows the party does not need illegal aliens just the party elites. They know that we would have more jobs without a race to the bottom on wages and hours. JOe Average lives with the crime, changing neighborhoods, and schools etc.

          That’s why Trump will stick with the Reps because the base agrees with him.


             
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            Henry Hawkins in reply to forksdad. | October 5, 2015 at 7:35 pm

            Five party changes in sixteen years says Trump certainly does not stick with much of anything very long.


             
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            forksdad in reply to forksdad. | October 6, 2015 at 6:48 pm

            Agreed. Like I said Carson is my choice. Trump is in it for at least the rest of the year. Maybe next year. If he can squeeze past the gate keepers on the primaries he’ll be the nominee. If not he’ll keep shoving the Overton window on immigration and outsourcing either way it’s better than what we have.


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