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    Democrats Panicked in NC Senate Race (#NCSEN)

    Democrats Panicked in NC Senate Race (#NCSEN)

    The North Carolina Senate race has taken an unexpectedly good turn for the GOP

    First, some context about this post: I live in Upstate South Carolina, less than 20 miles from downtown Charlotte, NC. I’m also an avid Jeopardy watcher.

    Why is this important you ask? Well, ever since NC House Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate race in June, there have been non-stop television ads… on behalf of his opponent, incumbent Kay Hagan. If you think Alex Trebek can be annoying, combine that with wall-to-wall negative ads paid for by Harry Reid’s SuperPAC designed to “Romney” (verb) Thom Tillis.

    My conventional wisdom and experience by the end of June told me that Harry Reid didn’t really need to win North Carolina anyway for him to stay Senate Majority Leader. I figured the post-June Hagan TV blitz in the relatively expensive Charlotte TV market was a test. I figured Hagan was doing well and Reid, along with other liberal groups, would have to move money out of NC to other places. I figured Kay Hagan was a “buffer” but when push came to shove the North Carolina seat was expendable for Reid and Democrats. And finally, I had convinced myself that the Romney-ing of Tillis had worked. Hagan’s numbers were climbing and I thought that Tillis had lost the summer and perhaps the whole election.

    Boy, did I figure wrong.

    In its biggest expenditure this election cycle, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Wednesday launched a $9.1 million TV blitz in North Carolina attacking Republican Thom Tillis.

    The ad buy, the largest so far in North Carolina, would be paid out through the end of the campaign. It reflects both the outside interest in a race that will help decide control of the Senate and, some say, concern about Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan.

    “It tells me a couple things,” said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the Washington-based Cook Political Report. “One, that she really is in trouble. They’re not going to spend that kind of money defending an incumbent who’s in reasonably good shape.

    “Two, they’re going to do the negative ads because I don’t think her approval ratings can take any more hits.”

    Four polls on the Senate race have come out in the past month and it seems Tillis survived the summer after all. The Real Clear Politics average has Tillis up slightly, but more importantly, Hagan is under 45% re-elect in all but one of the surveys.

    In fact, as the result of their own tracking polls, last week Rasmussen moved the North Carolina race from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. Hagan only received 40% in their poll done in early August. One of the drivers of the race in North Carolina: Obamacare.

    Thirty-nine percent (39%) of North Carolina voters have a favorable opinion of that law, while 56% view it unfavorably.

    It seems clear now that not only is Hagan in trouble. Reid and the Democratic Senate Senatorial Campaign Committee have hit the panic button and are doing a money drop to save Hagan. The big question now…. how much money will they sacrifice if she truly is a lost cause for re-election?


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    Funny thing is, all of the ads (and the coordinated Observer stories) tout her as the “most moderate Senator, not too left, not too right, just like NC.” Yeah, right. How many Obama initiatives did she vote against? Waiting for Tillis to strike back.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to rso3. | August 15, 2014 at 9:36 pm

      The daily newspapers in Charlotte and Raleigh are owned and run by the same company and both are absolute liberal rags, MSNBC on paper. Lefty Kay Hagan only *seems* centrist to the ultra libs writing and editoring at these newspapers. They are all Maddow types.

    Kinnick | August 15, 2014 at 5:18 pm

    Labor Day is the deadline for the Demoncrats. If Kay Hagan looks to loose after the money drop, they’ll pull the support and throw it into Iowa and Colorado. The Democrats here in Iowa are terrified of looking Tom Harkin’s Senate seat to a capable conservative in Joni Ernst. If she get’s that seat, it is hers until she retires. Once people get to know her, they are going to love her.

    What is happening is that Red State voting patterns are re-emerging. If the Republicans get their act together, Virginia and Ohio should follow suit as well in election cycles to come. Obama fatigue has finally set-in among low information voters. Thank God for that.

    stevewhitemd | August 15, 2014 at 9:43 pm

    My parents live in NC; I’ve been getting an earful from them about how awful Hagan is. Not that I needed a lot of convincing 🙂

    Live way out in western NC, but had to go to Raleigh this week. Passed a billboard, I think somewhere around Elon/Burlington area, that had a message something like: “Tillis and the Koch Brothers…bad for North Carolina.”

    Desperate and stupid.

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