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    I really hate to do this to you

    I really hate to do this to you

    But I’m already sizing up Operation Counterweight Senate races for 2014.

    Don’t look back is my motto.

    Roll Call has a list of Senate races and assessments.   Do any of them have serious primary challengers?  Lindsay Graham seems like he could be vulnerable in theory, but I wonder if in practice.  Susan Collins is the best we can do in Maine (I would have supported Olympia Snowe for the same reason had she not retired.)

    “Likely Republican”
    Georgia: Saxby Chambliss
    Kentucky: Mitch McConnell

    “Safe Republican”
    Alabama: Jeff Sessions
    Idaho: Jim Risch
    Kansas: Pat Roberts
    Mississippi: Thad Cochran
    Nebraska: Mike Johanns
    Maine: Susan Collins
    Oklahoma: James M. Inhofe
    South Carolina: Lindsey Graham
    Tennessee: Lamar Alexander
    Texas: John Cornyn
    Wyoming: Michael B. Enzi

    On the Democratic side, there a a large number of vulnerable incumbents rated as “Toss-Ups”:

    Alaska: Mark Begich
    Arkansas: Mark Pryor
    Louisiana: Mary L. Landrieu
    North Carolina: Kay Hagan
    South Dakota: Tim Johnson
    West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller

    And others rated only “Leans Democratic”:

    Minnesota: Al Franken
    Montana: Max Baucus
    New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen

    My early thought is to focus on Republican primaries in Toss-up states, rather than challenging Republican incumbents.

    Your thoughts?

    Update:  Charles sends along links to the 2014 Senate Preview at Daily Kos:

    I’m guessing we lose Ark ,NC and SD, and maybe gain an Indy in Collins before 2014 – if things go badly we’ll lose Franken and Begich. Still enough of a cushion to put us at 50-52 if things go bad. After that we’d be talking about losing NH and CO, in which case you can probably kiss MT and LA goodbye in an anti-Dem wave like in 2010.

    And also the assessment at “Citizens United” (not sure if it’s that Citizens United).  You will find this Republican primary assessment of interest:

    Kentucky-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may face a primary challenge from his right. There really isn’t a logical basis for this, but it may very well happen anyway. McConnell is a savvy politician with a massive war chest. He’s also avoided any votes that could be used against him. I don’t take a potential challenge very seriously, although a deal with President Obama to raise taxes could completely alter this outlook.
     
    Maine-Susan Collins is the last of the moderate New England Republicans. Her ideological twin Olympia Snowe retired last year. It is possible Collins will do the same. If she does not she will most likely face a primary challenge. The Maine Republican primary electorate is quite conservative, a serious challenger would stand a real chance. If Collins is not the Republican nominee Democrats will be strong favorites to win this seat.
     
    South Carolina-Lindsey Graham is the best candidate to be this cycle’s Richard Lugar. Graham is conservative, but not as conservative as you would expect a Senator from South Carolina to be. He has shown a willingness to work with Democrats on immigration, climate change, and other issues. He also voted to confirm both Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagen to the Supreme Court. Graham is a ripe target for a primary challenge and would probably be a slight underdog. Regardless of who the nominee is, this seat will be won by the Republicans.

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    Comments


    The GOP needs to get real. Enough with the wish and hope. We need to fight. Enough with the consultants who rake in money – but don’t have their ear to the ground.

    Who is going to face Franken?

    […] Legal Insurrection’s Professor William Jacobson has handicapped the 2014 midterm elections. […]


     
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    Simon H Gedney | December 3, 2012 at 5:28 pm

    Websearch on “Secretary of State Project.” Wherever the left-liberal wing of the Jackass Party successfully installed their politicians in state positions responsible for counting and certifying votes, there have been irregularities. The best example is MN, where all those felons and other ineligible voters elected Senator Franken. Along with “Operation Counterweight,” perhaps conservative Republicans should gin up an “Operation SecState” of their own. Also, the Republicans should close their primaries to prevent Democrats crossing over and selecting an Akin again.

    Please, can we just agree – when selecting our candidates to not choose people who are confused, or perhaps don’t know how to articulate that they are against rape?

    That can state, and hold, the position that they are Pro-Life, but campaign on the issues governing the country like taxes, Obamacare, spending, and not shoot themselves in the foot(read head) with social issues?

    This sort of ship cost us the Senate this year, and I hate to break the idealism of a lot of you but unless you have POWER you can not advance your AGENDA. So you stood on the social issues and look where that got us, now we can’t actually do anything to advance those causes.


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