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    Mass Senate race tightens as Obama bounce helps Warren

    Mass Senate race tightens as Obama bounce helps Warren

    A poll by Kimball Political Consulting, apparently a Republican leaning entity, found that the Senate race has tightened.

    Whereas two weeks ago Brown was up by 6 (consistent with PPP finding Brown up by 5 with likely voters), now Brown is up by less than 1%.  Obama’s 16% lead is up 5% versus the prior poll (here), and Warren has closed the gap by that same 5%.

    It looks like Warren is benefitting from an Obama bounce:

     In the days following the Democratic Convention President Obama has extended his lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to 16 points (56 percent to 40 percent with 9% undecided) according to a Kimball Political Consulting survey of “likely voters” in Massachusetts.

    Senator Scott Brown has less than a 1 point lead over Democrat Elizabeth Warren (46 percent to 45 percent) with 9 percent undecided. The figure is well within the survey’s 3.5 percent margin of error.

    “While pundits often suggest that conventions have little effect on voters these results contradict that assumption,” explained Spencer Kimball, a Republican Strategist who conducted the poll. Compared to an earlier survey of the “most likely to vote” population two weeks before the convention Obama gained 5 points while Brown dropped by 5 immediately after the Democratic convention.

    “Both Senator Brown and Elizabeth Warren are carrying very high favorability rating at over 50% each.  This may be the result of both campaigns’ pledge to keep outside money from buying negative ads,” said Kimball.

    It speaks to the fundamental weakness of Warren that she lags 11 points behind the presidential nominee of her own party (Obama getting 56%, Warren 45%).

    As I predicted two weeks ago, it is not surprising that there is some fluctuation in the polls.  Let’s see how long the Obama bounce helps Warren.

    Update:  The Boston NPR station has a very good analysis of Warren’s many problems, What’s Wrong With The Warren Campaign:

    Elizabeth Warren continues to raise huge sums of money, a lot of it from outside Massachusetts. But when the money gets here, it supports a plodding, low-wattage, organizational campaign that can’t figure out how to present the candidate, seems unable to communicate, ducks the news media, and produces generic TV spots….

    Tribal warfare. She and her campaign were unable to shut off questions this spring about her Cherokee heritage and it cost her a month’s worth of news coverage. Native Americans tried to meet with her in Boston but she declined. At last week’s Democratic convention, they again tried to meet with her; she again refused. Like the Indiana strikers who dogged Mitt Romney in his race against Ted Kennedy, this ain’t over; it’s coming back this fall in debates and TV spots.



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    Buck up! If Obama is ahead (and I doubt it) it is by a field goal advantage and we are in the third quarter. And don’t get me started about Lizzy Borden Warren!

    The polls are @#$%. Don’t be fooled.

    The only polls that count are inside polls, and no one other than the people commissioning them see the results.

    I would caution about putting any credence at all in a single poll, no matter what it says.

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