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    PPP finds Akin still leads McCaskill – Troll poll?

    PPP finds Akin still leads McCaskill – Troll poll?

    PPP finds Todd Akin still leads Claire McCaskill, and that the numbers have not changed much since the controversy broke:

    Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn’t moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That’s basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.

    PPP finds that Akin’s negatives are high, but people are voting along party lines:

    Akin has certainly been damaged by this whole thing- a Survey USA poll last week showed him up by 11 points in the wake of his primary victory. But he’s by no means out of it- it looks like Missouri’s increasing Republican lean over the last few years would give him a decent chance at victory in spite of this major controversy.

    This poll was conducted between 6 and 9 PM central time tonight.

    Maybe Akin could win Missouri, but this was just a flash poll so it’s hard to read too much into it.

    If I were a cynic, I might suggest that PPP — a Democratic pollster — did the flash poll knowing it was too soon for the effect of the controversy to make its way into the electorate in the hope of keeping Akin’s hope alive before he makes his decision overnight whether to step aside.

    But I’m not a cynic, no way, no how.

    Update:  As pointed out in the comments and also by John McCormack on Twitter, PPP only read Akin’s statement to the respondents after they answered the question as to preference, which would tend to help Akin in the PPP poll.  Okay, now I’m a cynic.

    Update 8-21-2012:  Ace, CORRECTED PPP Numbers for Missouri:

    Here are the real numbers: If turnout in November matches 2008 (it won’t): McCaskill 49.25% Akin 39% (this is a D+6 turnout model)

    If turnout in November is even, an incredible feat for the GOP considering heavy turnout in St Louis and Kansas City during an election year: McCaskill 47% Akin 40%.

    If turnout in November matches the best we have ever seen in the state (R+3 during 2010): McCaskill 45% Akin 41%.


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    PhillyGuy | August 21, 2012 at 8:56 am

    Oh no. He cut an apology ad last night. This is a bad sign.

    Henry Hawkins | August 21, 2012 at 9:47 am

    Akin may be using today to see if reaction to his latest mea culpa vid might repel the tide, that if it doesn’t he’ll pull out by deadline this afternoon. Drowning man, grasping, straws, etc.

    Meanwhile, McCaskill and the DNC are compiling a couple thousand videos of national GOP leaders, media pundits, and political consultants who’ve publicly called for Akin to pull out of the race, to be made into campaign ads run constantly until November 6th.

    And so it begins, the great distraction aided and abetted by…bloggers.

    Thus the column in the National Catholic Reporter characterizing Mr. Ryan as a “champion of dissent” regarding the church’s social teaching. Or the headline at the website Jezebel, “Badass Nun Says Paul Ryan is a Bad Catholic.” When this sort of thing seeps into the mainstream, it takes the form of the recent article in the Washington Post that found moral parallels between the two vice-presidential candidates: Mr. Ryan is a dissenter from “social justice,” while Vice President Joe Biden, also Catholic, dissents on issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.

    If you guys can’t even club McCaskill over the partial birth abortion issue because of Akin, then how are you going to defend Ryan on the Social Justice angle? Rubes…read the whole article as you might as well at least hit the ground running to the issue instead of forming a circular firing squad on another GOP candidate. Arrrrgh!

    MaggotAtBroadAndWall | August 21, 2012 at 10:46 am

    I think the PPP poll is bogus. For all the people who were working hard yesterday without internet access, they did not really learn that Akin’s own Republican party decided early Monday morning to destroy his campaign until they turned on the evening news last night.

    It obviously got a lot air time locally. The newscasts made sure the viewers knew that Karl Rove’s Pac cancelled advertising in the race; that several Republican senators grandstanded asked Akin to withdraw, etc. The newscasts also wanted viewers to know that Republicans hate Akin more than Democrats. McCaskill was shown saying Akin won the primary fair and square and it would be unfair and undemocratic for the Republican bullies (my word not hers, but she did mention Karl Rove by name in the clip) to force him off the ticket.

    Akin sent out a tweet last night seeking donations to see how much support he has. That was his equivalent of a flash poll. I doubt he got much money.

    He raised the least amount of money in the primaries. His strategy was to rely on national financial support from the NRSC, Crossroads, etc. to get him over the finish line in November if he won the primary. Without that support, he can not respond to all the negative ads Democrats will throw at him 2-3 weeks before the election.

    As I said yesterday, his political career is already over. His only consideration now is does he stay in the race and hand victory to McCaskill as a sort of revenge for the dispicable way Republicans treated him.

    texasron | August 21, 2012 at 1:29 pm

    My first reaction to Akin’s comment was that I couldn’t believe we had such a stupid person on the Republican side. I also wondered if many other congressmen were as stupid as Akin. But then I wondered if anyone asked Akin where he acquired such a view about rape. Maybe someone in his past, a teacher, for example, led him to such a thing.

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