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    Ted Cruz surging to lead?

    Ted Cruz surging to lead?

    Via Roll Call, the Cruz campaign has released the results of an internal poll which shows Cruz in the lead:

    Ted Cruz led Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by 9 points in a recent internal poll conducted for the former Texas solicitor general’s campaign, a Cruz source has confirmed.

    From the earliest days of the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Dewhurst has been the frontrunner. But in this survey, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for Cruz. Forty percent supported Dewhurst, and 11 percent were undecided.

    The poll surveyed 750 likely Republican runoff voters June 24-26 with a 3.6-point margin of error. Cruz had 96 percent name identification among those voters and Dewhurst had 98 percent name identification.

    I haven’t been able to find any other recent polling.  Is this an outlier, or is the Cruz surge the real deal?

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    Comments



     
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    june beamer | July 6, 2012 at 9:41 pm

    Ceuz has 2 mor votes here in Tx!!!


     
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    june beamer | July 6, 2012 at 9:43 pm

    oh, heck I acn’t spell but I can tell a “C” from a “D”!!! Cruz!!!


     
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    Estragon | July 7, 2012 at 1:36 am

    Well, you can figure any “internal poll” to have a 3-4 point bias for the guy who is paying for it if it’s released. But polls are not necessarily so predictive of primary runoffs.

    These elections aren’t on the regular election dates, and there is nothing else at stake except the run-off. Expect turnout to be lower than the primary. There is a huge premium on organization and enthusiasm, and Cruz probably has the most committed troops.

    Dewhurst has more or less the incumbent role here. It reminds me of the 2004 SC GOP primary for the open Senate seat which had been occupied by Fritz Hollings since the ’60s. Former Governor David Beasley had a healthy lead in the primary but wasn’t close to a majority against the field. DeMint was a distant second, but won the runoff handily. This could be a similar case.


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