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    Bad unemployment

    Bad unemployment

    The rate rose to 8.2%, but the real story via IBD, Core 25-54 Employment Rates Still Near Historic Lows:

    The unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.2% in May, holding above 8% for the 40th straight month, the Labor Department reported Friday. But actual employment rates of core working age Americans suggests the true jobs situation is even worse.

    From mid-1987 until the Great Recession, the employment-to-population ratio of 25-54-year-olds usually ranged from 78.5% to 80%. It never fell below 78.2% even during the 1990-1991 and 2001 slumps.

    But now, nearly three years after the recession ended in June 2009, that ratio stands at just 75.7%.

    Via Bloomberg, it really was a terrible report all around:

    Payrolls climbed by 69,000 last month, less than the most- pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, after a revised 77,000 gain in April that was smaller than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate called for a 150,000 May advance. The jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent, while hours worked declined.


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    Not quite “near historic lows”, as the chart shown only goes back to 1980. I will say “lowest in a quarter century”. My chart goes back to 1948, and the age 25-54 employment population ratio was below 75% for the entire period 1948-1980.

    alan markus asked about older workers, and, interestingly enough, the 55+ employment population raio at 37.9% is near a historic (since 1948) high. There hasn’t been this large a percentage of 55+ employed since 1970.

    Have I got some graphs for you!

    The issue, of course, is that a lot of women ages 25 – 54 weren’t working from 1948 – 1990. In my blog post, I look at the combined ratio from 1948 to April 2012, but in the comments you’ll see I talk about it by male/female breakout.

    The labor participation rate for men in that age group has dropped from 97% in 1948 to 89% in 2012…it’s mainly been a slide downward for the whole period. Women’s participation rate grew from 35% in 1948 to 74% in 2012 (women’s participation rate peaked at 77% in 1999/2000 — there was a long ramp up).

    But back to the combined –the overall participation rate for these peak earning ages has not been this low since 1985.

    jimzinsocal | June 1, 2012 at 2:35 pm

    Today will mark a real turning point for many voters. Many have been in a wait and see mode blindly hoping for a turnaround. And dont misunderstand…most of us like to entertain a half full bottle mindset. But when ynemployment again goes in the wrong direction? Time to change direction in DC as well.
    What we need is a 180 turnaround on policy around the private sector. Keep the anti business mindset in the college classrooms. This is real world stuff…real world survival. Bring back the climate that treats private sector business as friends. They arent the enemy.
    The enemy is unclear tax policy. The enemy is the Obamacare financial cloud hanging over every business and university. The enemy is a sophomoric anti business climate.
    Time for Obama’s failed economic policy to go.

    Except that the 69,000 is way over stated because the previous month’s revisions have not been factored in to adjust the figure.

    Seasonally adjusted, only 22,000 more people (June’s 69K minus April’s and March’s 38K and 9K downward adjustments) were estimated to be working in May than were estimated to be working in April.

    Once again the MSM has failed in it’s obligation to report the facts accurately and continues to give political cover to an incompetent administration.

    […] the awful job numbers (which are probably much, much, worse than reported) and a collapsing stock market, I bet many feel […]

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