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    What if everything we have been told about Mitt Romney’s electability is wrong, Part 4

    What if everything we have been told about Mitt Romney’s electability is wrong, Part 4

    This is latest in a series debunking the primary justification for Mitt Romney’s nomination, electability versus Barack Obama.  (See Parts One, Two and Three)

    Conn Carroll, at The Washington Examiner, used favorability ratings for a headline column, America Hates Newt, which generated a lot of attention and fed into a narrative pushed by the Romney camp that Romney matched up best against Obama.

    My theory from the start has been that Romney’s early favorability polling and match up against Obama should not be taken as a decisive measurement because historically Romney has not been able to withstand the types of attacks used by Ted Kennedy (Bain) and John McCain (lack of core conviction).

    Unlike other candidates who came under withering assault and scrutiny last fall, as of year end Romney largely had been untested.

    As I predicted, Romney could not withstand the negative attacks, and his problems just now are showing up in polling.

    Byron York points to a just released Washington Post poll which shows that Romney’s favorability ratings have plunged in January and now essentially are the same as Newt.   Via WaPo:

    The number of Americans with negative views of Mitt Romney has spiked in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, compounding the former Massachusetts governor’s challenges as he tries to rally from Saturday’s big loss in South Carolina.

    Among independents, Romney’s unfavorable rating now tops 50 percent — albeit by a single point — a first in Post-ABC polling back to 2006. Just two weeks ago, more independents had favorable than unfavorable views of Romney; now, it’s 2 to 1 negative.

    Romney’s losses since a Post-ABC poll conducted between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary are not limited to independents. The number of Democrats viewing him unfavorably is up 10 percentage points, and among his fellow Republicans, negative ratings have jumped from 18 to 32 percent.

    On November 16 I wrote that we were being fed “a false narrative of Romney electability.”

    Nothing has changed, except the narrative is being revealed to be overstated, in not false.

    If you like Mitt Romney, vote for him.  But don’t vote for him just because you think he’s more electable versus Obama.

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    Comments


    This is only anecdotal, but the only positive comments I have heard from my liberal acquaintances on any Republican were about Newt. They respect his intelligence, eloquence, fearlessness and quick wit. It would be very difficult, if not impossible, to pin the dumb Republican meme on Newt.


     
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    NC Mountain Girl | January 24, 2012 at 12:52 pm

       
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      janitor in reply to NC Mountain Girl. | January 24, 2012 at 2:21 pm

      Jeb Bush is covertly backing Romney. Be that as it may, does no one here remember the S&L bailouts? He is not electable. Certain Florida factions might love him, but he’s the guy who got his cronies at Broward Savings to give him a 4.5 million dollar non-recourse loan based on a pie-in-the-sky deal with $50,000 down that he walked away from, after pocketing much of the money, effectively destroying the bank and laying the cost onto taxpayers.

    William, from today’s Real Clear Politics (polls apparently done yesterday).

    General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3

    General Election: Gingrich vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 49, Gingrich 40 Obama +9

    Every poll taken in the last three or more months shows Newt losing to Obama by wider margins than Romney.

    And Newt certainly didn’t fare too well against the negative attacks in the 1990s. Newt has only very recently (in the last week or so) been on the receiving end of those this time around.


       
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      Henry Hawkins in reply to jimbo3. | January 24, 2012 at 3:36 pm

      “Newt has only very recently (in the last week or so) been on the receiving end of those this time around.”

      lol, yikes. Ever heard of a state named Iowa? $3.5 million in ad attacks were dumped on Gingrich there. No, really. Look it up.

      As for Obama vs. X polls, they are meaningless. Neither Romney nor Gingrich nor anyone else is running against Obama yet. They are running against each other for the GOP nomination.

      It’s like me saying I know the score of the Super Bowl before it even starts. And I do! 0-0. However, once the game begins that might change….

      It’s January. The election is in November. This is no guarantee the GOP nominee will be Romney or Gingrich. Given the reputation and records for guts of the current Republican Party, it is possible they may decide to forfeit. We’ll see. But one is for certain, it is far too early to make anything like a prediction on head-to-heads with Obama.


         
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        jimbo3 in reply to Henry Hawkins. | January 24, 2012 at 4:40 pm

        Ok, make it “in the last two weeks or so”. As to whether the polls are valid indicators, they tend to be better at predicting the actual results if the people being polled have formed opinions of them.

        Newt’s been around for twenty years. He’s well known.

        That’s different than the situation with Sarah Palin four years ago. She was not well known by most of the country and people hadn’t formed opinions of her.

    “If you like Mitt Romney, vote for him.  But don’t vote for him just because you think he’s more electable versus Obama.”
    So, if we don’t endorse Newt…it’s because we don’t think? And the backers of Mitt must have not perform the necessary analysis and strategic premise for their choice?
    You were a respectable source for political commentary back when you (objectively) positioned these candidates as ‘Not-Perfect-But-Not-Obama’.

    Readers could count on Legal Insurrection litigative take on the race to spot the flaw in ALL the candidate’s character, record and ideology to make their own choices … till recently; when you start dismissing legitimate critique of Newt’s liabilities.

    How did the Not-Obama voters go from broadly agreeing back in 2011 that we felt underwhelmed if not imperiled by this field of candidates…to the idea that Newt is the only candidate above reproach and exempt from further evaluation?

    If you like Newt, vote for him. But don’t vote for him just because you think a backstabbing, narcissistic autocrat is more electable versus Obama. And at the very least don’t treat your fellow Not-Obama primary voters as enemies.


       
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      Henry Hawkins in reply to Aucturian. | January 24, 2012 at 2:24 pm

      LI: “If you like Mitt Romney, vote for him. But don’t vote for him just because you think he’s more electable versus Obama.”

      Aucturian: “So, if we don’t endorse Newt…it’s because we don’t think?”

      How in the world do you get that from what Mr. J said? All he said is that if you favor Romney because you think he’s the electable one, think again, because that attribute was false and has been thoroughly debunked. Having finally best tested the week before SC – and having failed – Romney’s unfavorables skyrocketed and are as high as anyone’s. Romney’s ‘inevitability’ and ‘electability’ were nothing more than thinkful wishing.

      We’ll send over an EMT team to untwist you from that pretzel shape such an interpretation required.


     
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    Henry Hawkins | January 24, 2012 at 2:18 pm

    Mitt Romney, newly elected president, to the current GOP leadership: “OK, what do you want me to do?”

    Newt Gingrich, newly elected president, to the current GOP leadership: “OK, here’s what we’re gonna do.”

    THAT is why you pick Gingrich over Romney.


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