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    A glimmer of a glimmer

    A glimmer of a glimmer

    Via Political Wire, the most recent polls:

    A Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney has a 14 point lead over Newt Gingrich, 43% to 29%, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both at 11%. Just 7% are undecided, but 24% say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s primary election.

    A SurveyUSA poll shows Romney tops Gingrich by 15 points, 41% to 26%, with Santorum and Paul at 12% each.

    A We Ask America poll shows Romney crushing Gingrich, 50% to 28%, with Santorum at 12% and Paul at 11%.

    A Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney leads Gingrich by seven points, 39% to 32%, with Santorum at 14% and Paul at 11%.

    A InsiderAdvantage poll claims the race is down to just five points with Romney leading Gingrich, 36% to 31%, followed by Santorum and Paul each at 12%.

    Note that the PPP and Insider Advantage polls for yesterday show only mid-to-high single digit leads, with IA showing a substantial drop in Romney’s lead since its poll last week.

    Does this reflect a backlash against the Romney tactics?  We’ll find out tomorrow.

    And remember the expectations game.  At this point, will anything less than a double-digit Romney win breath life into the Newt campaign?

    (added) In 2008, Romney received 31% of the vote in Florida, McCain 36%, Rudy 14.7, Huck 13.5, Paul 3.2.

    Update: The most important poll of all? (conservative bloggers)

    1) If you had to pick the GOP’s 2012 presidential nominee today, which of the following candidates would you select?

    4) Ron Paul: 11.6% (8 votes)

    3) Rick Santorum: 21.7% (15 votes)

    2) Mitt Romney: 31.9% (22 votes)

    1) Newt Gingrich: 34.8% (24 votes)

    Of course, since the blogger poll does not include Drudge, or other high traffic blogs, it’s just a measure of rightness, not power.

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    Comments


    “Just 7% are undecided, but 24% say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s primary election.”

    I think many respondents lie to pollsters. I heard my own mother tell a telephone pollster that she couldn’t remember who she voted for in the 2008 Presidential election.


       
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      Henry Hawkins in reply to logos. | January 30, 2012 at 12:52 pm

      I live for the moment I get called by a pollster, especially if it becomes clear they are liberal or Democrat. Heh, heh, heh.


         
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        logos in reply to Henry Hawkins. | January 30, 2012 at 2:11 pm

        Me, too! I’ve never been favored with a tele-pollster call.


           
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          Henry Hawkins in reply to logos. | January 30, 2012 at 2:39 pm

          Telemarketers, too. I buy ten of everything they’re selling – then give them bad order information. Or sometimes I’ll admit, “Heck yes, I’m interested! could you hold on a minute while I let the dog out?” Then I lay the phone on the counter or desk and go about my day. Sometimes i have a heart attack mid call. My favorite is listen to their whole spiel and then try to sell them an imaginary used car in my driveway, daring them to complain about me trying to sell them something they don’t need or want.


     
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    Louis R. Lombardi | January 30, 2012 at 1:58 pm

    1980. Ronald Reagan lost three of the first four events – Iowa, Puerto Rico and Massachusetts. He only won New Hamspshire. Florida will not be the death knell for anyone.There is a whole lot of game left.


     
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    CalMark | January 30, 2012 at 3:38 pm

    AP just came out with an article that regardless what happens in Florida, the race goes on. Duh.

    Could it be the Mittens isn’t nearly the shoo-in everyone’s been saying?

    I say again: the polls are rigged. Last week, they flipped 20 points overnight. Now they’re “tightening.” Are pollsters walking it back just enough to retain future credibility? If they’re that wrong this time, we should stop listening to them.

    Remember (I keep repeating this): The polls said SC was “toss up” or very shaky low single digits for Newt.


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