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    Cain and Palin win Legal Insurrection Straw Poll

    Cain and Palin win Legal Insurrection Straw Poll

    Over 2400 votes cast.

    Herman Cain wins with an overwhelming 46%  based on the current field, with Perry (21%) and Romney (10%) far behind.  Sarah Palin wins big in an expanded field including Chris Christie, at 58% with Cain dropping to second at 14%, Christie at 13% , Perry at 8% and Romney at 3.5%.   (These numbers are rounded, full and precise results here.)

    First all the usual caveats.  Not a scientific poll.  Not even a poll.  Like a true straw poll a measure of who showed up and enthusiasm.  Not surprisingly, this blog has a large pro-Palin contingent, and there were some links to the poll in the comment sections of pro-Palin blogs which may account for her higher numbers to some extent.

    My observations from this straw poll:

    • Cain likely is getting the vote from those not happy with the two frontrunners, similar to the “no confidence” vote (Bill Kristol’s term) in the Florida straw poll.  When the field expands Cain’s percentage dropped dramatically.
    • Support for Romney and Perry is a mile wide and an inch thin.  They lose when others get in or gain momentum, as in the Florida straw poll.
    • Chris Christie (at last report, still not getting in) takes votes away from Romney, consistent with Dan Riehl’s theory that Christie is being pushed by the establishment not as an anti-Perry candidate, but out of fears that Romney is weak.
    • Palin has an ethusiastic base of support, more organized on the internet than any other candidate.  That there were some links at pro-Palin blogs reflects that there are pro-Palin blogs but few if any blogs backing the curent front runners.  (Someone please point me to pro-Romney or pro-Perry blogs which are not creatures of the campaign.)

    Your thoughts?

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    Comments


    Dan Riehl’s theory is not a theory as Patterico quantifies this morning.

    http://patterico.com/2011/09/26/christie-2012-signs-point-to-yes/

    Key graf:

    “However, Christie’s potential candidacy has been an increasingly fevered fantasy of a certain cadre of some media and business elites — mostly based in New York, with a smattering of California technology and entertainment players — since last summer. These elites do not take no for an answer. Now, relying on an unusual source, they have reason to hope Christie will change his mind.”

    Christie is a desperate hail mary pass for liberal Democrats panicking over idea that the GOP might defy the big dirty money and nominate a conservative for a change.

    (So is Ann Coulter a “fevered NY elite” or “CA tech and entertainment player”?)

    Is Christie the Anti-Perry or the Anti-Romney?
    By NATE SILVER

    “The ideology of governors can sometimes be hard to measure because they do not take roll call votes, as members of Congress do. But a method devised by Adam Bonica, a political scientist at Stanford, would infer that Mr. Christie was quite moderate based on the political orientation of his campaign contributors. Mr. Christie’s ideological score, according to Mr. Bonica’s method, is similar to that of Mr. Romney’s when he was governor of Massachusetts, or Charlie Crist while he was governor of Florida, although somewhat to the right of Christie Whitman when she was governor of New Jersey.”

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/26/is-christie-the-anti-perry-or-the-anti-romney/?hp

    (Someone please point me to pro-Romney or pro-Perry blogs which are not creatures of the campaign.)

    There may be some blogs out there that are pro Romney or Perry, I’ll wager there are no blogs out there that were FORMED to be pro either one.

    Palin’s supporters are energetic in their support. And hoping she jumps in.

    Interesting post on Instapundit in regards to that:

    “NOT SET IN STONE: On Facebook, Rich Galen reminds us: “4 yrs ago the GOP leaders were Giuliani (28%) & Thompson (23). Dems were Hillary (47) & Obama (26).””


     
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    StephenMonteith | September 26, 2011 at 10:39 pm

    Pro-Romney blogs/sites: America Needs Mitt; Evangelicals for Mitt; Mitt Romney Central; Conservative Samizdat; RightSpeak (most of the bloggers are pro-Romney, though the site itself may not be); one of the bloggers on Conservative Wahoo actually volunteers in Romney’s Iowa campaign; and any number of groups/pages on Facebook, all of which have higher fanbases than any other candidate (including Ron Paul, excluding Sarah Palin).

    Oh, and every now and then, I’ll pen something on A Free Exchange of Ideas ( http://youngconservative27.blogspot.com/ )


       
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      StephenMonteith in reply to StephenMonteith. | September 26, 2011 at 10:41 pm

      All of these are strictly grassroots only. Romney has plenty of his own organizations, of course, with his Free And Strong America PACs and his official campaign; but these are all independent sites.


     
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    Left Coast Red | September 26, 2011 at 10:53 pm

    JayDick | September 26, 2011 at 11:09 am

    “Of the 46 million people, I would bet more voted for McCain than for Palin…

    Nominating a real conservative Republican Presidential candidate who then loses the general election is not a good strategy this year. ..

    Obama has come too close to ruining the country; give him four more years and he will complete the job.”

    ‘Do ya feel lucky, a$$hole??’

    Sorry for the Dirty Harry profanity, but this is the classic establishment Republican argument — this is McCain’s argument: Be squishy and strap on a conservative symbol – you’ll win, hand-down!

    Did McCain win? Did Dole win?

    The country is in TROUBLE. Give Obama four more years, and America is……a pleasant memory.

    Do ya feel lucky?

    Herman-tum…..


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