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    The Wisconsin Recalls Are Not Over

    The Wisconsin Recalls Are Not Over

    Yes, you are celebrating.  But the Wisconsin Senate recall elections are not over.

    Republicans have a chance to deliver a political coup de grâce to the national union and Democratic intimidation tactics next Tuesday when there are two elections seeking to recall Democratic State Senators Robert Wirch and James Holperin.  These two were among the fleebaggers who ran away to Illinois..

    The Recall Wirch campaign has been a focus here for months.  The Republican challenger is Jonathan Steitz.

    The challenger to Holperin is Kim Simac.

    Republicans need to turn out in force, and with a demoralized Democratic base, anything is possible.

    Update:  Next week’s recall elections may be even more important than I thought, since one group is claiming that a “RINO” state senator (Dale Schultz, who voted against the collective bargaining bill) is a risk to switch parties, which would flip the Senate unless Republicans take back one more seat.  The Wisconsin State Journal referred to Schultz as one of the “ultimate winners” of last night’s vote because it puts him in the driver’s seat.

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    Dale Schultz should be mindful of the fact that, after all the hoopla in Dane County, Ed Schultz went home empty last night.

    (Scroll down to his photo on this Althouse post from last night.)

    I think that a lot of what we’re going to see next week in terms of turnout will depend on what happens in the news, the markets and the local Wisconsin media. The more unstable the political climate, the more it helps the challengers and hurts the incumbents, because as we saw in 2008 and 2010, angry people vote for “change.”

    As Aarradin noted above, the Wisconsin Legislature has now publicly proposed their redrawn election maps. The Democrat party of Wisconsin is unhappy about them (hence, the lawsuit, which I think is baseless, but will keep the point in the public eye at least for a while).

    It also depends on if the media tries to make it the public concept that “those Evil Republicans have redrawn the districts to eliminate Democrats who protect the little guy, so support us in the recall so we can try to delay their EVIL scheme as long as possible.”

    As with all elections, it all comes down to turnout. The Democrat turnout will be somewhat depressed due to their loss this week to take the Senate, so likely a lot of them will stay home under the impression that “it doesn’t matter anyway.”

    Holperin is DEFINITELY vulnerable. The ONLY county in his district that didn’t vote AGAINST Russ Feingold in the 2010 election cycle was Menominee, but in that county the vote ratio for Holperin in 2008 was 10:1 of 1100 votes. The Republicans need to get the turnout up in Florence, Langlade and Lincoln and Marinette counties (Counties Holperin LOST in 2008, even with the Democrat party sweeping the nation). If the Republican party can do that, they’ll win Holperin’s seat.

    Wirch is going to be a different experience. The problem with recalling Wirch is the major population center of Kenosha County. The only wards the 2008 Republican won in Kenosha County were Genoa City Village Wards 4 & 5 and Kenosha wards 35, 39, 45 and 48, and those had a sum total of 252 votes. In most of the bottom 34 Kenosha Wards, Wirch won by over 2:1. If the Republicans want to win against Wirch, they need to dramatically depress Democrat turnout in the county and dramatically amp up Republican turnout.

    The Wisconsin Legislature realizes that Kenosha County is a lost cause, which is why in the new map they’ve cracked and packed it in order to limit the Democrat input (which is why Wirch is hollering, because he doesn’t actually want to LIVE with the voters he purports to “represent” and he KNOWS he CAN’T win in the District his house now sits in.

    Wirch may be a lost cause simply because the inner-city voters are institutionally inclined to pull the (D) lever. But Jonathan Steitz may be able to pull it off. We’ll find out next week.


     
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    LukeHandCool | August 10, 2011 at 2:10 pm

    Markos at Daily Kos is calling yesterday a victory … for Democrats.

      Or course he is. Markos is a tool and a mouthpiece of the Democrat party. The sole and only reason he exists is to try to rouse the petulant Democrat base with his new version of the “youth in revolt” schtick. He’s there to play cheerleader.

      The “recall Walker” campaigns are also calling it a victory, saying that it shows there is sufficient backlash to recall Governor Walker.

      They’re all going “YEAH, YEAH” so that they don’t have to face the reality that they actually LOST horribly by not being able to retake control of the Wisconsin Senate, after all their chanting, screaming, protesting and intimidation, oh, and let us not forget MILLIONS of dollars of campaign spending. One of the two Democrat Candidates only just barely squeaked out a win (for which the Republicans ought to be KICKING themselves), and I think it likely that the District 12 Democrat is going to lose next Tuesday.


     
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    Mutnodjmet | August 10, 2011 at 3:11 pm

    DONATE FOR NEXT WEEK’S WI BATTLE! Links to the Simac and Steitz campaign can me found HERE.


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