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    The Plum Line Guys Are Right About Jews and Obama

    The Plum Line Guys Are Right About Jews and Obama

    As you know, I’m highly skeptical of polls showing Jews turning against Obama in substantial numbers.  So, in what may be a first, I’ll have to agree with the Plum Line guys, Greg Sargent and Adam Serwer, about Jews and Obama.

    Jews are not going to vote against Obama, at least not on the scale indicated in a recent poll

    The Plum Line guys accuse the poll of being skewed as to sampling and the way in which questions were asked.  In other words, they are accusing those pollsters of doing what Public Policy Polling does frequently, to the accolades of the Plum Line guys.

    I reach my conclusion not based on the quality of the polling, but the reality of what I hear and see day in and day out.  Purely anecdotal observations:  Obama will lose some Jewish support, on the magnitude of 10% (give or take) less than in 2008, but Jews still will vote significantly in favor of Obama.

    Want to know why?  This is why:

    “In my house growing up, The Times substituted for religion. If The Times said it, it was the absolute truth.”

    It’s true, like it or not.  I’ve lived it my whole life, and there is no getting through to most of these people for whom liberalism is a religion.

    Now a loss of 10% of the Jewish vote could be significant in Florida, but New York already is in the bag for Obama so it will not make a difference there.  That’s not to say it’s not worth the effort for Republicans to try to make inroads.  A massive movement away from Obama and Democrats certainly would be justified on the merits.

    But don’t get your hopes up.

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    Comments



     
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    Vascaino | July 14, 2011 at 12:09 pm

    Something to “smile” about when considering the religions of today’s world:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14135523
    “Austrian driver’s religious headgear strains credulity”

    “Niko Alm first applied for the licence three years ago after reading that headgear was allowed in official pictures only for confessional reasons.
    Mr Alm said the sieve was a requirement of his religion, pastafarianism.
    ….
    The idea came into Mr Alm’s noodle three years ago as a way of making a serious, if ironic, point.”

    Maybe we should be making a serious point.

    The mind


     
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    JEBurke | July 14, 2011 at 3:30 pm

    The Professor is right but then a 10 percent shift in Jewish votes in Florida would be a very big deal — possible even clinching that all-important state.

    A similar shift might help in Ohio or Pennsylvania but would not be decisive. Most other states with a significant Jewish vote — New York, Illinois, California — are out of reach to the GOP.

    Still, keep in mind that Jews vote at a rate about double that of some other Democratic constituencies. Losing 10 percent — eg, dropping from 78 to 68 percent — is a huge loss, likely on a par with the shift to Nixon in 1972.


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