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    Does Wisconsin 2011 = U.S.A. 2012?

    Does Wisconsin 2011 = U.S.A. 2012?

    Alexander Burns at Politico argues that Wisconsin in 2011 is a template for what will happen nationally in 2012, a split electorate with a narrow margin of victory:

    Wisconsin’s contested Supreme Court race has set in motion a drama that’s by now almost painfully familiar. It goes something like this: A hard-fought election comes down to a few troublesome precincts. National commentators fret about ballot-box shenanigans and voter fraud. A not-ready-for-primetime local official becomes the target of withering partisan attacks. 

    Then, both parties send in the lawyers.

    I’m not sure I agree.

    My feeling right now is that Obama either wins comfortably or loses comfortably.  He is so polarizing a figure that he manages to resurrect the lovefest and adoration, or he falls miserably on his face.

    What do you think?

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    Comments


    The meaning of Obama is that he represents Western self hatred. He could only be elected by a people that are self destructive. He will lead the USA down into further financial, social, and political catastrophe. I don't know if he will be re-elected, but the meaning of his re-election will be that we have much further down to go before any process of renewal is to begin.


     
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    viator | April 13, 2011 at 1:26 pm

    We live in interesting times. There is an acute crisis in the western ruling class as evidenced by events in Europe, the UK (including many of it's old dominions), the US and the middle east. For almost a century the progressive, social democratic model has governed by largess. The manifest failures of that government are now upon us. They are striving mightily to hide, postpone, camouflage and squirm out of a reckoning by lying first to us and then to themselves. Too late. There is very little of Other Peoples Money left to be had. The Europeans are eying German wealth but they are not going to get much more than they already have, except a nein. We are eying "the rich" but they already finance more than half our government, an amount that is only half enough anyway ($3.82 expenses less $2.17 revenue, in trillions, but IMF says current deficit is really -$2.08, more than 50% of expenses. We are borrowing about $6 billion each day). The Japanese and Chinese are probably maxed out on US debt. Right now we are selling ourselves our own bonds, how long can we keep that up? Presently our economy is a Potemkin village created by Washington.

    So can the Obama administration kick the can a little further down the road, lie through it teeth and fool enough people to get re-elected? Can the Republican Party really be an opposition party or are they just enablers for the Democrats? That last loudly reported $39 billion budget agreement is even more of a sham that it first appeared, being almost entirely constituted of leftover budget trash from the bookkeeping niches and crannies of the Washington establishment. Both parties knew that.

    The GOP establishment is Democrat Lite. Their hopes and fears are almost synonymous. Remember, during the middle of the last financial crisis both parties spoke with one voice. Can an outsider get elected via the Republican party over the adamant objections of the party establishment? Will someone like Trump run a third party campaign guaranteeing an Obama re-election?

    All Obama has to do is stumble into re-election being marginally more effective than the Republicans. People – not the readers of Legal Insurrection – but a lot of people prefer lies far more than the truth. If things are going to hell they would rather hear about it only when Charon finally shows up.

    That being said, we should fight like hell to stop the awful drift. Renaissance is possible. Our only conveyance is the unreliable, rickety Republican Party, so let's hop aboard that charabanc. Who knows who may join us, we can throw some tea overboard, stop in Iowa and New Hampshire, and maybe, just maybe elect someone with guts, brains and a servants heart.

    Obama will win. The advantages of incumbency, the billion dollar war chest, and the support of the MSM are too much to overcome unless he faces an exceptional candidate, and none of the GOPers are exceptional.

    If he faces one of the stolid midwesterners (Pawlenty or Daniels), then his electoral margin will be substantially smaller than last time, but if he faces one of the cranks (Huck, Palin, Trump), he will win in a landslide.

    I left Romney out because he has no chance of winning the nomination.

    FWIW, my personal fave is Jon Huntsman, who also has no chance at the nom.

    Praying and hoping for total defeat.

    It all comes down to who the Republican nominee is.

    If it's a lousy nominee, it will be a close race and Obama wins.

    If it's a good nominee – one that the base doesn't have to hold its nose, and doesn't turn off too many independents – Obama loses in a rout.


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