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    Muslim Brotherhood’s Five-Year Plan

    Muslim Brotherhood’s Five-Year Plan

    The Muslim Brotherhood has announced that it will not run a presidential candidate and will not seek a parliamentary majority in the coming elections.  This announcement is being hailed as a sign of moderation, but it is no such thing.

    The Muslim Brotherhood must know that if it were to assume power so quickly, there would be a military backlash.  Much as the military in Turkey at one time (but no longer) was the guardian of secular society, so too the military in Egypt will be seen in the short run as the protector of secular Egyptian society.  So long as the military is independent and strong, the Muslim Brotherhood must tread lightly.

    Victor Davis Hanson makes the case that the Muslim Brotherhood will follow the Iranian model, with only a year or two needed to take control:

    In other words, when the crowds go home and return to their jobs, the most zealous, organized, and ruthless will go to work to consolidate power. Let us hope for the best — a secular, pro-Western constitutional republic backed by a professional military — and prepare for the worst — two to three years of revolutionary fervor as Islamists, month by month, gain control of the Arab world’s largest state after coming to power by one man, one vote, one time.

    I certainly don’t discount that things could move that quickly, particularly if there were some event which provided a trigger mechanism for a takeover. 

    But the Muslim Brotherhood’s announcement leads me to believe that it will follow the Turkish model, in which Islamist political parties over time gained influence over and ultimately control of the government, and used such power to purge the military of secular forces.  While Turkey is not Iran, yet, the power center of secularism has been neutered.

    If the transition in Egypt is not handled well, and if the more secular forces do not have time to organize and consolidate power in the coming years, the result will be an Islamist state. 

    Whether the Islamists in Egypt follow the Iranian or Turkish model really doesn’t matter.  The end result will be the same.

    Hopefully there will be a new model, the Egyptian model, with a very different result.

    ——————————————–
    Related Posts:
    Turkey is Lost to Islamists
    The “Save The Babies of Turkey” Flotilla
    Turkey Looking Like The Next Iran

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    Comments


    5 years will give Israel plenty of time to become both energy independent and under a missile shield. The US can make major progress in the same direction if Obama is kicked to the curb next year.

    If it's a 5-year plan, I can breathe a sigh of relief. Egypt and their scary tourism economy are no threat. If they want to start something, they can always relearn the lessons of their forefathers.


     
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    commoncents | February 13, 2011 at 2:35 pm

    We have 8 (so far) CPAC videos posted right now on Common Cents…

    http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com

    Excellent. You've done a little research. Why can't we expect at least as much from our MSM who spend their time whitewashing Erdogan and whitewashing the Muslim Brotherhood. Bad enough that the IHT featured an op-ed by Hassan al Banna's grandson but today's NYT features a "news analysis" that tells us how wonderful and moderate the organization is:

    Founded by a schoolteacher named Hassan el-Banna in the Suez Canal town of Ismailiyya in 1928, it quickly became the most important political contestant in the country, boasting a vibrant press, delivering weekly lectures from mosques and reaching out to students, civil servants, urban laborers and peasants. It was banned in 1954 under Gamal Abdel Nasser, the founder of Mr. Mubarak’s state, weathering a brutal crackdown that instilled in it the iron discipline of a clandestine movement.

    The repression, which persisted until last month, produced some of the Muslim world’s most militant thinkers, among them Sayyid Qutb, who had a profound impact on militancy across the Muslim world. But remarkably, the movement also evolved over those same years, pursuing coalitions with other political parties since 1984, joining street protests with leftist groups and entering a feeble Parliament as independents, whose demands were not enforcement of Islamic strictures but opposition to martial law.

    Its former leader turned heads in 2005 when he offered a play on the group’s traditional slogan, “Islam is the solution.” “Freedom is the solution,” he declared.

    This is what passes for hard hitting journalism these days. That's why need blogs.


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